A Constant Gain Learning Framework to understand the behaviour of US Inflation and Unemployment in the 2nd half of 20th century
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006.
"Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 366-375, 04-05.
- Athanasios Orphanides amd John Williams, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 254, Society for Computational Economics.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2005-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
- Sargent, Thomas J. & Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 478, European Central Bank.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2005.
"Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1951-1983, November.
- Alex Cukierman & Francesco Lippi, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEIS Research Paper 26, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Alex Cukierman & Francesco Lippi, 2004. "Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 493, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 3763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christina D. Romer & David Romer, 2002.
"The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 9274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Ireland, Peter N., 1999.
"Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1998. "Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 415, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Venkata Raamasrinivas Mangapuram, 2022. "A Constant Gain Learning Explanation of U.S. Post War Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 701-721, September.
- Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021.
"From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s,"
Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
- Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2020. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Post-Print hal-03878374, HAL.
- Michael D. Bordo & Athanasios Orphanides, 2013. "Introduction to "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking"," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 1-22, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, "undated". "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2009. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 89/2009, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
- Laura Coroneo & Valentina Corradi & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2018.
"Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 780-796, September.
- Coroneo, Laura & Corradi, Valentina & Santos Monterio, Paulo, 2012. "Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities," Economic Research Papers 270654, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Laura Coroneo & Valentina Corradi & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2013. "Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities," Discussion Papers 13/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Coroneo, Laura & Corradi, Valentina & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2012. "Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 985, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Srinivasan, Naveen & Jain, Sumit & Ramachandran, M., 2009. "Monetary policy and the behaviour of inflation in India: Is there a need for institutional reform?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-24, January.
- Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2022. "Tracking a central banker's preference: A nonparametric regression approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 291-307, January.
- Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2018. "Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1083-1103.
- Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007.
"Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
- Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005.
"Understanding the Greenspan standard,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
- Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan Standard," Working Papers 88, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Naveen Srinivasan & Vidya Mahambare & M. Ramachandran, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation in India: does the new inflation bias hypothesis provide an explanation?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 199-212.
- Harashima, Taiji, 2007. "Why should central banks be independent?," MPRA Paper 1838, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2007.
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Naveen Srinivasan, 2014. "Testing the Expectations Trap Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach," Working Papers 2014-089, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
- Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2008. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 220, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2020. "Reading a central banker's preference: A non parametric regression approach," Discussion Paper Series 2007, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
- Waters, George A., 2009. "Learning, Commitment, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 421-449, September.
- Sachsida, Adolfo & Divino, Jose Angelo & Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira, 2011. "Inflation, unemployment, and the time consistency of the US monetary policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 173-179, June.
More about this item
Keywords
natural rate of unemployment; persistence; stagflation; time inconsistency; state space; kalman filter; maximum likelihood estimation; constant gain (CG) learning;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-HIS-2020-11-30 (Business, Economic and Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2020-11-30 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mad:wpaper:2020-194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Geetha G (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mseacin.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.