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The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach

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  • Grydaki, Maria
  • Bezemer, Dirk

Abstract

During the Great Moderation, financial innovation in the US increased the size and scope of credit flows supporting the growth of wealth. We hypothesize that spending out of wealth came to finance a wider range of GDP components such that it smoothed GDP. Both these trends combined would be consistent with a decrease in the volatility of output. We suggest testable implications in terms of both growth of credit and output and volatility of growth. In a multivariate GARCH framework, we test this view for home mortgages and residential investment. We observe unidirectional causality in variance from total output, residential investment and non-residential output to mortgage lending before, but not during the Great Moderation. These findings are consistent with a role for credit dynamics in explaining the Great Moderation.

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  • Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4615-4626
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.01.039
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    3. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2016. "Intra-national and international spillovers between the real economy and the stock market: The case of China," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 78-92.
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    5. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2013. "Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 47399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gaetano Antinolfi & Celso Brunetti, 2019. "Economic volatility and financial markets: The case of mortgage‐backed securities," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 85-113, May.
    7. Mustansar, Talreja, 2023. "Financial innovation, technological improvement and bank’ profitability," OSF Preprints 8wy95, Center for Open Science.
    8. Lauretta, Eliana, 2018. "The hidden soul of financial innovation: An agent-based modelling of home mortgage securitization and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 51-73.
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2020. "Financial innovation and bank growth: The role of institutional environments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
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    Keywords

    Great Moderation; Mortgage credit; Multivariate GARCH; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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