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PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area

Author

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  • Bańbura, Marta
  • Bobeica, Elena

Abstract

This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures widespread developments across the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) basket and that it is the persistent component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low-frequency common component, i.e. a component driven by shocks or factors that are relevant for all inflation series and capturing cycles longer than three years. The PCCI is a weighted average of these common components. It is an alternative to the typical exclusion-based measures used to gauge underlying inflation (e.g. HICP excluding food and energy), as it does not a priori exclude any HICP items. It exhibits a set of desirable properties as a measure of underlying inflation, and it is a good tracker of more lasting inflationary developments (judging by smoothness and bias). Furthermore, it is timely and signals turning points with some lead, while acting as an attractor for headline inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E31, E32, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbsps:202038
    Note: 810771
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpsps/ecb.sps38~ce391a0cb5.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bobeica Elena & Holton Sarah & Koester Gerrit, 2023. "Bringing Inflation Back Under Control," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 136-141, June.
    2. Matthew Fontes Baptista & Stéphane Lhuissier & Matteo Mogliani, 2024. "Measuring the underlying component of inflation [Mesurer la composante sous-jacente de l’inflation]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 253.
    3. Ampudia, Miguel & Ehrmann, Michael & Strasser, Georg, 2023. "The effect of monetary policy on inflation heterogeneity along the income distribution," CEPR Discussion Papers 18460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.
    5. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic factor model; frequency domain; Underlying (core) inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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