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Real-Time vs. Full-Sample Performance of One-Sided and Two-Sided HP Filters. An Application to 27 EU Member States’ GDP Data

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  • Kaloyan Ganev

    (Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”)

Abstract

The paper makes a comparison of the results of the application of two-sided and one-sided versions of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on GDP data concerning 27 EU Member States. Based on the results, the overall finding is that, contrary to its assumed advantages, the one-sided filter does not help overcome endpoint unbiasedness. Quite the opposite, it rather spreads and consolidates the endpoint bias that plagues the two-sided version over the entire filtered data. In addition, regression-based results on the influence of the second, third, and fourth moments of the GDP acceleration rates on the differences between onesided and two-sided HP trends are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaloyan Ganev, 2020. "Real-Time vs. Full-Sample Performance of One-Sided and Two-Sided HP Filters. An Application to 27 EU Member States’ GDP Data," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(3), pages 251-272, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:251-272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    one-sided and two-sided Hodrick-Prescott filters; endpoint bias;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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