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The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think

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The global financial crisis and Covid recession have renewed discussion concerning trend-cycle discovery in macroeconomic data, and boosting has recently upgraded the popular HP filter to a modern machine learning device suited to data-rich and rapid computational environments. This paper sheds light on its versatility in trend-cycle determination, explaining in a simple manner both HP filter smoothing and the consistency delivered by boosting for general trend detection. Applied to a universe of time series in FRED databases, boosting outperforms other methods in timely capturing downturns at crises and recoveries that follow. With its wide applicability the boosted HP filter is a useful automated machine learning addition to the macroeconometric toolkit.

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  • Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2348, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2348
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi, 2022. "On LASSO for High Dimensional Predictive Regression," Papers 2212.07052, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    2. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2024. "Econometrics of machine learning methods in economic forecasting," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 10, pages 246-273, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2024. "Econometrics of machine learning methods in economic forecasting," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 10, pages 246-273, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," CAMA Working Papers 2023-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Eva Biswas & Farzad Sabzikar & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "Boosting the HP Filter for Trending Time Series with Long Range Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2347, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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