IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/y2008iqip51-68nv.93no.1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

PCE and CPI inflation differentials: converting inflation forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Craig S. Hakkio

Abstract

The Federal Reserve recently announced it will begin to release quarterly inflation forecasts based on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index. As Chairman Bernanke said, the PCE index is generally thought to be ?the single most comprehensive and theoretically compelling measure of consumer prices.? At the same time, Bernanke said that ?no single measure of inflation is perfect, and the Committee will continue to monitor a range of measures when forming its view about inflation prospects,? including the Consumer Price Index. ; The public and private sectors alike will want to be able to convert CPI inflation forecasts released by various organizations to PCE inflation forecasts, and vice versa. But the inflation differentials for the two measures can change significantly over time. To convert between CPI and PCE inflation projections, economists must construct statistical models to explain and predict the inflation differentials (overall and core), recognizing that the differentials may change over time. ; Hakkio estimates a set of models that analysts can use to make such conversions.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig S. Hakkio, 2008. "PCE and CPI inflation differentials: converting inflation forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q I), pages 51-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2008:i:qi:p:51-68:n:v.93no.1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1644/2008-PCE%20and%20CPI%20Inflation%20Differential:%20Converting%20Inflation%20Forecasts.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todd E. Clark, 1999. "A comparison of the CPI and the PCE price index," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q III), pages 15-29.
    2. Clinton P. McCully & Brian C. Moyer & Kenneth J. Stewart, 2007. "A Reconciliation between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index," BEA Papers 0079, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Improving Forecast Accuracy By Combining Recursive And Rolling Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 363-395, May.
    4. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2020. "The CPI–PCEPI Inflation Differential: Causes and Prospects," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(06), pages 1-8, March.
    2. Mugera, Amin W. & Langemeier, Michael R. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2012. "Labor Productivity Growth in the Kansas Farm Sector: A Tripartite Decomposition Using a Non-Parametric Approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus & Allen M. Featherstone & Michael R. Langemeier, 2021. "Are Kansas farms profit maximizers? A stochastic additive error approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 37-50, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
    2. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
    3. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    4. Carré, Emmanuel, 2013. "La cible d’inflation de la Fed : continuité ou rupture ?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 14.
    5. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 470/471, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester, 2006. "Core inflation as a predictor of total inflation," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Apr.
    8. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting the oil–gasoline price relationship: Do asymmetries help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 44-56.
    9. Jacob Greenspon & Anna Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2021. "Productivity and Pay in the United States and Canada," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 41, pages 3-30, Fall.
    10. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
    11. Adrian Armas & Lucy Vallejos & Marco Vega, 2010. "Measurement of price indices used by the central bank of Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 259-283, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2018. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 131-145, January.
    13. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    14. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    15. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2022. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 361-386.
    16. Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "Simple interpolations of inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    17. Caitlin Blair, 2013. "Constructing a PCE-Weighted Consumer Price Index," NBER Working Papers 19582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Nicholas Oulton, 2018. "GDP and the System of National Accounts: Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 1802, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jun 2018.
    19. Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2012. "Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle," Working Papers (Old Series) 1217, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Calista Cheung & Frédérick Demers, 2007. "Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation," Staff Working Papers 07-8, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance);

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2008:i:qi:p:51-68:n:v.93no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.