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Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy

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  • Castelnuovo, Efrem

Abstract

This paper estimates a new-Keynesian model of the business cycle for the post-WWII U.S. economy and performs theoretical and counterfactual simulations to isolate the role played by systematic monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks in shaping the volatilities of inflation and output. Shocks to trend inflation are found to be a key-driver of raw inflation and the inflation gap. In contrast, shocks to output are likely to have played a major role as regards the volatility of the business cycle. Overall, my results work against the [`]good policy only' interpretation of the U.S. Great Moderation.

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  • Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:19-33
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012. "Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area," Economics Working Papers 2012-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    4. Tae-Seok Jang & Stephen Sacht, 2016. "Animal Spirits and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Moment Matching," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 76-113, February.
    5. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2011. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in the new-Keynesian three-equations model," Economics Working Papers 2011-10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    6. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Trend inflation and monetary policy regimes in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 137-152.
    7. Hsu, Jason C., 2012. "What drives equity market non-participation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 86-114.
    8. Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with rolling-windows," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Qazi Haque, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target, and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    10. Tae-Seok Jang, 2012. "Structural Estimation of the New-Keynesian Model: A Formal Test of Backward- and Forward-Looking Behavior," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 421-467, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian Model: a formal test of backward- and forward-looking expectations," MPRA Paper 40278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian model: A formal test of backward- and forward-looking behavior," Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    13. Hamid Beladi & Avik Chakrabarti & Sugata Marjit, 2013. "Privatization and Strategic Mergers across Borders," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 432-446, August.
    14. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian Model: a formal test of backward- and forward-looking expectations," MPRA Paper 39669, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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