IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v241y2024ics0165176524002908.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The time-varying U.S. treasury bond demand elasticity

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Bohan
  • Wang, Bin

Abstract

We investigate the time-varying demand elasticity of U.S. Treasury bonds in the international financial market using a TVP-VAR-SV model. We find that the demand elasticity decreases when the risk of the international financial market rises but increases when the risk of the U.S. financial market rises, though the demand elasticity is not significantly different from that during the financial crisis. Our findings suggest that the U.S. Treasury bonds have market power and convenience yields as safe assets in the international financial market, but they also face competition from other countries’ bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Bohan & Wang, Bin, 2024. "The time-varying U.S. treasury bond demand elasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002908
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524002908
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111806?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Clayton, Christopher & Dos Santos, Amanda & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse, 2022. "Internationalizing Like China," Research Papers 4019, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    4. Chen, Zefeng & Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Xiaolan, Mindy, 2022. "Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 17340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    6. Jason Choi & Rishabh Kirpalani & Diego J. Perez, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Implications of US Market Power in Safe Assets," NBER Working Papers 30720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1683-1722, August.
    8. Koijen, Ralph & Yogo, Motohiro, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System," CEPR Discussion Papers 14874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    10. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    11. Wang, Bin & Kwan, Yum K., 2021. "Measuring the natural rates of interest of OECD and BRICS economies: A time varying perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Clayton, Christopher & Santos, Amanda Dos & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse, 2022. "Internationalizing Like China," SocArXiv r2msa_v1, Center for Open Science.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moretti,Matías & Pandolfi,Lorenzo & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Villegas Bauer,Germán & Williams,Tomás, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10735, The World Bank.
    2. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Fragility of Safe Assets," Working Papers 23-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    3. Zefeng Chen & Zhengyang Jiang, 2022. "The Liquidity Premium of Digital Payment Vehicle," CESifo Working Paper Series 9933, CESifo.
    4. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    5. Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Tony Zhang, 2024. "A Portfolio Approach to Global Imbalances," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2025-2076, June.
    6. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    7. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, March.
    8. Du, Wenxin & Hébert, Benjamin & Li, Wenhao, 2023. "Intermediary balance sheets and the treasury yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    9. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
    10. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2023. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 125-142, January.
    13. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 375-390, July.
    14. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021. "Steady‐state growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 40-52, April.
    15. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. He, Zhiguo & Nagel, Stefan & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Treasury inconvenience yields during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 57-79.
    17. Bruno P. C. Levy & Hedibert F. Lopes, 2021. "Dynamic Ordering Learning in Multivariate Forecasting," Papers 2101.04164, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    18. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    19. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Furlanetto & Francesca Loria, 2023. "Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1314-1324, September.
    20. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convenience yield; TVP-VAR-SV; U.S. treasury bond demand elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.