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Term Structure and Cyclicity of Value-at-Risk: Consequences for the Solvency Capital Requirement

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  • Frédérique Bec
  • Christian Gollier

Abstract

This paper explores empirically the link between French equities returns Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the state of financial markets cycle. The econometric analysis is based on a simple vector autoregression setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2008Q3, it turns out that the k-year VaR of French equities is strongly dependent on the cycle phase: the expected losses as measured by the VaR are twice smaller in recession times than expansion periods. These results strongly suggest that the European rules regarding the solvency capital requirements for insurance companies should adapt to the state of the financial market’s cycle. To this end, we propose a cycle-dependent measure of the Solvency Capital Requirement.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérique Bec & Christian Gollier, 2009. "Term Structure and Cyclicity of Value-at-Risk: Consequences for the Solvency Capital Requirement," CESifo Working Paper Series 2596, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2596
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Rochet, J C., 2008. "Procyclicality of financial systems: is there a need to modify current accounting and regulatory rules?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 12, pages 95-99, October.
    5. Bec Frédérique & Bastien Alexia, 2007. "The Transmission of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Shocks in Japan: Has There Been a Structural Change?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, December.
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    8. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Brautigam & Michel Dacorogna & Marie Kratz, 2019. "Pro-Cyclicality of Traditional Risk Measurements: Quantifying and Highlighting Factors at its Source," Papers 1903.03969, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    2. Marcel Bräutigam & Michel Dacorogna & Marie Kratz, 2018. "Predicting risk with risk measures : an empirical study," Working Papers hal-01791026, HAL.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13624 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alessandro Leardi, 2022. "Fuelling fire sales? Prudential regulation and crises: evidence from the Italian market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 121-144, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expected equities returns; Value at Risk; investment horizon; vector auto-regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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