IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/v6y2009i1p36-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Second Order Dynamics Of Economic Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Purica, Ionut

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Caraiani, Petre

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The monthly data of the industrial production in Romania after the structural discontinuity occurring at the end of 1989 show an under-damped oscillatory behavior that suggests an evolution of second order systems excited by a step function. Since this behavior is well described in control systems we are doing what the literature usually calls a reversed engineering of the data in order to identify the specific parameters for the economic cycle of industrial production. The final goal is to determine the second order differential equation that may be associated to the economic process related to industrial production evolution. This paper is a first contribution that opens an alternative approach to describe the economic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Purica, Ionut & Caraiani, Petre, 2009. "Second Order Dynamics Of Economic Cycles," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 36-47, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:1:p:36-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_09/rjef1_09_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caraiani, Petre, 2007. "An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 114-123, December.
    2. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    3. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    4. Caraiani, Petre, 2007. "An Analysis of the Fluctuations in the Romanian Economy using the Real Business Cycles Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 76-86, June.
    5. Caraiani, Petre, 2004. "Nominal And Real Stylized Facts Of The Business Cycles In Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(4), pages 121-132, December.
    6. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    8. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Purica, Ionut, 2012. "Oscillatory Dynamics of Industrial Production," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 117-128, December.
    2. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Modeling Business Cycles In The Romanian Economy Using The Markov Switching Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 130-136, March.
    3. Andrei Silviu DOSPINESCU, 2012. "The Behavior Of Prices As A Response To Structural Changes - The Role Of The Economic Transmission Mechanisms In Explaining The Observed Behavior," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 201-217, December.
    4. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Is the Romanian Business Cycle Characterized by Chaos?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 142-151, September.
    5. Cristi SPULBAR & Mihai NITOI & Cristian STANCIU, 2012. "Identifying The Industry Business Cycle Using The Markov Switching Approach In Central And Eastern Europe," Management and Marketing Journal, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 0(2), pages 293-300, November.
    6. Purica, Ionut, 2010. "Nonlinear Considerations on Economic Systems’ Behaviour," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 74-81.
    7. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    8. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.
    9. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Financial System Fragility Models," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 110211, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. João T. Jalles, 2022. "Do credit rating agencies reward fiscal prudence?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 2-22, April.
    2. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    3. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    4. Steven Cook & Alan Speight, 2005. "A deeper look at asymmetries in UK consumers' expenditure: the nonparametric analysis of 100 disaggregates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 893-900.
    5. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER Working Papers 23429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2021. "Asymmetry in Okun’s Law Revisited: New evidence on cyclical unemployment–cyclical output trade-off in the Free State Province using NARDL model," MPRA Paper 107126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1035-1044.
    9. Sunder, Marco & Woitek, Ulrich, 2005. "Boom, bust, and the human body: Further evidence on the relationship between height and business cycles," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 450-466, December.
    10. Mr. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 2004/146, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Jalles, Joao Tovar & Ge, Jun, 2020. "Emissions and economic development in commodity exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Ugo Panizza, 2022. "Do Countries Default in Bad Times? The Role of Alternative Detrending Techniques," IHEID Working Papers 06-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Petre Caraiani, 2009. "An Estimation of Output Gap in Romanian Economy Using the DSGE Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(4), pages 366-379.
    14. Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.
    15. Roberto Iannaccone & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Signal Extraction in Continuous Time and the Generalized Hodrick- Prescott Filter," Econometrics 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kaloyan Ganev, 2020. "Real-Time vs. Full-Sample Performance of One-Sided and Two-Sided HP Filters. An Application to 27 EU Member States’ GDP Data," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(3), pages 251-272, September.
    17. Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, 2015. "Volatile earmarked revenues and state highway expenditures in the United States," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 237-256, March.
    18. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
    19. Miroslav Plašil, 2011. "Potenciální produkt, mezera výstupu a míra nejistoty spojená s jejich určením při použití Hodrick-Prescottova filtru [Potential Product, Output Gap and Uncertainty Rate Associated with Their Determ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 490-507.
    20. Flaig Gebhard, 2015. "Why We Should Use High Values for the Smoothing Parameter of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(6), pages 518-538, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; simulations; nonlinear methods; transition economies; mathematical methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:1:p:36-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.