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A Time Varying DSGE Model with Financial Frictions

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Beatriz Galvão

    (University of Warwick)

  • Liudas Giraitis

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Katerina Petrova

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

We build a time varying DSGE model with financial frictions in order to evaluate changes in the responses of the macroeconomy to financial friction shocks. Using US data, we find that the transmission of the financial friction shock to economic variables, such as output growth, has not changed in the last 30 years. The volatility of the financial friction shock, however, has changed, so that output responses to a one-standard deviation shock increase twofold in the 2007-2011 period in comparison with the 1985-2006 period. The time varying DSGE model with financial frictions improves the accuracy of forecasts of output growth and inflation during the tranquil period of 2000-2006, while delivering similar performance to the fixed coefficient DSGE model for the 2007-2012 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015. "A Time Varying DSGE Model with Financial Frictions," Working Papers 769, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:769
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      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. George Kapetanios & Stephen Millard & Katerina Petrova & Simon Price, 2018. "Time varying cointegration and the UK great ratios," CAMA Working Papers 2018-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2022. "Time-Varying Parameter Four-Equation DSGE Model," Working Papers 202234, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Alberto Bucci & Simone Marsiglio, 2019. "Financial development and economic growth: long‐run equilibrium and transitional dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 331-359, July.
    6. Jinshun Wu & Luyao Wu, 2024. "Bayesian Local Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying DSGE Models: Allowing for Indeterminacy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2437-2476, October.
    7. Giovanni Angelini & Paolo Gorgi, 2018. "DSGE Models with Observation-Driven Time-Varying parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-030/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Olatunji Abdul Shobande & Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe, 2021. "Monetary Policy Interdependency in Fisher Effect: A Comparative Evidence," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(1), pages 203-226.
    9. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
    11. Helen Louri & Petros Migiakis, 2019. "Financing economic activity in Greece: Past challenges and future prospects," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 135, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    12. Angelini, Giovanni & Gorgi, Paolo, 2018. "DSGE Models with observation-driven time-varying volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 169-171.
    13. Kapetanios, George & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Petrova, Katerina & Waldron, Matthew, 2019. "A time-varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Helen Louri & Petros Migiakis, 2019. "Financing economic growth in Greece: lessons from the crisis," Working Papers 262, Bank of Greece.
    15. M.Emranul Haque & Paul Middleditch & Shuonan Zhang, 2018. "Financial development and innovation: A DSGE comparison of Chinese and US business cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 244, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; Financial frictions; Local likelihood; Bayesian methods; Time varying parameters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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