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Monetary policy and fears of financial instability

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  • Brousseau, Vincent
  • Detken, Carsten

Abstract

Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynesian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the stability of inflation to the smoothness of the interest rate path. A policy focusing only on a fixed-horizon inflation forecast neglects the potential effects of this belief on the variance of inflation. The nature of the conflict case is interpreted as evidence for the occasional relevance as well as the general tenuousness of the conflict case. The implementation of our example has led us, furthermore, to illustrate the lack of general applicability of the Bellman principle in dynamic programming for forward-looking models. Our result holds with respect to a more general (Nash-type) concept of optimality JEL Classification: C61, C62, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Brousseau, Vincent & Detken, Carsten, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 89, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:200189
    Note: 229699
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp089.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: A Reduced-Form Model for the EURO Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 62-81, March.
    2. Mario Sarcinelli, 2003. "Crisi economiche e mercati finanziari: di aiuto un nuovo ordine finanziario?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(224), pages 387-422.
    3. Claudiu T Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 388-400.
    4. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    5. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    6. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2014. "The policy-mix in the Euro Area: The Role of Financial Stability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 705-717.
    7. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Aleš Bulíř & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 2008/018, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "One Money, but Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What Are the Consequences?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Andrew Crockett & Roger W Ferguson & Otmar Issing & Michael Mussa & Yutaka Yamaguchi, 2003. "Monetary stability, financial stability and the business cycle: five views," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 18.
    10. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "One Money, But Many Fiscal Policies in Europe : What are the Consequences?," Other publications TiSEM f2cdcc6c-329f-4ae6-915b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Sofía Bauducco & Aleš Bulir & Martin Èihák, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 545-565, December.
    13. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    14. Grégory Levieuge, 2005. "Politique monétaire et prix d'actifs," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 317-355.
    15. Helmut Wagner, 2005. "Globalization and financial instability: Challenges for exchange rate and monetary policy," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(7), pages 616-638, July.
    16. Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU, 2011. "Macro-Financial Risks and Central Banks: What Changes Has the Crisis Triggered?," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 135-142.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bellman principle; Financial Stability; optimal monetary policy; price stability; sunspot equilibria; time inconsistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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