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On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning

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  • Antonio Mele

    (University of Surrey)

  • Krisztina Molnar

    (Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Sergio Santoro

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We show that price level stabilization is not optimal in an economy where agents have incomplete knowledge about the policy implemented and try to learn it. A systematically more accommodative policy than what agents expect generates short term gains without triggering an abrupt loss of confidence, since agents update expectations sluggishly. In the long run agents learn the policy implemented, and the economy converges to a rational expectations equilibrium in which policy does not stabilize prices, economic volatility is high, and agents suffer the corresponding welfare losses. However, these losses are outweighed by short term gains from the learning phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Mele & Krisztina Molnar & Sergio Santoro, 2015. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0215, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0215
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    Cited by:

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    3. Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Röttger, Joost, 2023. "Make-up strategies with incomplete markets and bounded rationality," Discussion Papers 01/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Grimaud, Alex, 2021. "Precautionary saving and un-anchored expectations," MPRA Paper 110651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    6. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Ioana Manuela Mîndrican, 2023. "Monetary policy measures and strategies in the context of the adoption of the euro currency," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 14(8), pages 84-97, May.
    8. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
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    11. Martin Bodenstein & James Hebden & Fabian Winkler, 2019. "Learning and Misperception: Implications for Price-Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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