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Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Iryna Kaminska

    (Bank of England)

  • Haroon Mumtaz
  • Roman Sustek

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates vs.term premia? And does it matter for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in expected interest rates obtained by previous studies. Highfrequency yield curve decomposition around FOMC announcements into term premia and expected interest rates then provides instruments for a local projection model. The effects of interest rate expectations and term premia are found equally important for the transmission mechanism and broadly consistent with macroeconomic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz & Roman Sustek, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Working Papers 917, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:917
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    Cited by:

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    3. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    4. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England, revised 31 Aug 2022.
    5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2022. "Interest rates and foreign spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    7. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Kramkov, Viacheslav & Maksimov, Andrey, 2024. "Monetary surprises and term structure of interest rates: Identification through heteroscedasticity," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 5-34.
    10. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can We Use High-frequency Yield Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and Its Communication? Yes and No!," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Adra, Samer & Menassa, Elie, 2022. "The Fed’s dual shocks and the housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High-frequency data; monetary policy transmission mechanism; restricted affine term structure models; yield curve decomposition; local projection method; Bayesian estimation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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