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Arturo Estrella

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. All bark but no bite? What does the yield curve tell us about growth?
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2019-06-04 08:00:14
  2. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are \"deep\" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What does "structural" mean?
      by Noah Smith in Noahpinion on 2015-01-15 01:23:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
  3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
  4. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectation Models (AER 2002) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 12677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    2. Giambona, Erasmo & Matta, Rafael & Peydró, José-Luis & Wang, Ye, 2020. "Quantitative Easing, Investment, and Safe Assets: The Corporate-Bond Lending Channel," EconStor Preprints 217049, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    3. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Li, Boyao, 2024. "A balance sheet analysis of monetary policy effects on banks," MPRA Paper 120882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lojak, Benjamin & Makarewicz, Tomasz & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "Low interest rates, bank’s search-for-yield behavior and financial portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Bruno de Menna, 2021. "The Joint Impact of Bank Capital and Funding Liquidity on the Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel," Working Papers hal-03138724, HAL.
    8. Yiping Huang & Xiang Li & Chu Wang, 2019. "What Does Peer-To-Peer Lending Evidence Say about the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7792, CESifo.
    9. Georg Leitner & Teresa Hübel & Anna Wolfmayr & Manuel Zerobin, 2021. "How risky is Monetary Policy? The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Risk in the Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp312, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    12. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.

  2. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle," Staff Reports 421, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Yunus Aksoy & Henriqu S Basso, 2012. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1211, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    2. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    3. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    4. Weber, Patrick, 2012. "Timing asset market peaks: the role of the liquidity risk cycle of the banking system," MPRA Paper 36061, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2016. "The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness: The case of G5 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    6. Victor Pontines, 2016. "The Financial Cycles in Four East Asian Economies," Working Papers wp17, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    7. Landais, Bernard, 2010. "The monetary origins of the financial and economic crisis," MPRA Paper 23769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mierau, Joachim & Mink, Mark, 2016. "A descriptive model of banking an aggregate demand," Research Report 16011-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    9. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2021. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Working Paper Series 2614, European Central Bank.
    10. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic consequences of different types of credit market disturbances and non-conventional monetary policy in the euro area," 2011 Meeting Papers 333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    12. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    13. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol, 2022. "Does the choice of monetary policy tool matter for systemic risk? The curious case of negative interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
    15. Landais, Bernard, 2012. "Reformulation du modèle macroéconomique de la nouvelle synthèse : crédits, politique monétaire et écarts de taux [A reformulation of the new synthesis macroeconomic model : credits, monetary policy," MPRA Paper 38665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Landais, Bernard, 2011. "Conduite et efficacité de la politique économique : les leçons de la crise [Management and Efficiency of the Economic Policies : The Crisis' Lessons"]," MPRA Paper 31223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Vadim LOPOTENCO, 2017. "What Is The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Systemic Risk Of Republic Of Moldova'S Banking Sector?," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 2(1), pages 157-163.
    18. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers halshs-02549044, HAL.
    19. Aydemir, Resul & Ovenc, Gokhan, 2016. "Interest rates, the yield curve and bank profitability in an emerging market economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 670-682.
    20. Balke, Nathan S. & Zeng, Zheng & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    21. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.
    22. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    24. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    25. Malibongwe Cyprian Nyati & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi & Christian Kakese Tipoy, 2023. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interactions and Coordination in South Africa: Evidence from Business and Financial Cycle Synchronisation," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    26. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2018. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies, and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 44(2), pages 81-99, June.
    27. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Juan Contreras, 2018. "Determinants of bank profitability in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 686, Bank for International Settlements.

  3. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella, 2009. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Staff Reports 397, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 287-334.
    2. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    3. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Jens J. Krüger, 2014. "A multivariate evaluation of German output growth and inflation forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1410-1418.
    5. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
    6. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2020. "A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s," Working Papers 2020-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 31 Jan 2022.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
    9. Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
    10. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Robert Faff, 2021. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Papers 2101.06957, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    11. Forbes,Kristin & Jongrim Ha & Ayhan Kose, 2024. "Rate Cycles," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10876, The World Bank.
    12. Byrne, David & Kelly, Robert, 2019. "Monetary policy expectations and risk-taking among U.S. banks," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2013. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 2013/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    14. Krüger, Jens J., 2024. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 149438, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    15. Simon H. Kwan & Louis Liu, 2022. "Financial Market Conditions during Monetary Tightening," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(03), pages 1-6, February.
    16. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    17. Maximilian Renz & Olaf Stotz, 2021. "A macroeconomic hedge portfolio and the cross section of stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 73-94, January.
    18. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    19. Gunturu Phani Sai Vamsi Krishna & Pankaj Kumar Baag, 2021. "Financial Intermediaries: Its different role," Working papers 464, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    20. Mr. Julio Escolano & Ms. Christina Kolerus & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2014. "Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2014/215, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Boons, Martijn, 2016. "State variables, macroeconomic activity, and the cross section of individual stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 489-511.
    22. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    23. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    24. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

  4. Arturo Estrella, 2007. "Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?," Staff Reports 289, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. He, Dong & Liao, Wei & Wu, Tommy, 2015. "Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-28.
    2. Pu Chen & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Short and Long Effects of Productivity on Unemployment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 853-878, September.
    3. Ladislava Issever Grochová & Petr Rozmahel, 2015. "On the Ideality of Filtering Techniques in the Business Cycle Analysis Under Conditions of European Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 915-926.
    4. Hangyong Lee and Jin Lee, 2019. "Inflation Co-Movement in the ASEAN Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 135-152, December.

  5. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Sandip Sinharay, 2017. "Some Remarks on Applications of Tests for Detecting A Change Point to Psychometric Problems," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1149-1161, December.
    2. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2007. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp194, IIIS.
    3. Jean-Marc Azaïs & Alan Genz, 2013. "Computation of the Distribution of the Maximum of Stationary Gaussian Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 969-985, December.

  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
    2. Alessandro Flamini & Costas Milas, 2010. "Real-time Optimal Monetary Policy with Undistinguishable Model Parameters and Shock Processes Uncertainty," Working Papers 2010015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2010.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Working Paper Series 232, European Central Bank.
    5. Marta Areosa, 2008. "Combining Hodrick-Prescott Filtering with a Production Function Approach to Estimate Output Gap," Working Papers Series 172, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    7. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Georges Prat, 2013. "Rueff et l'analyse du chômage: Quels heritages?," Working Papers 2013-26, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    9. Adam Cagliarini & Alexandra Heath, 2000. "Monetary Policy-making in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Gino Cateau, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 05-6, Bank of Canada.
    11. Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    12. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ajax R. B. Moreira & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2015. "Robustness and Stabilization Properties of Monetary Policy Rules in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0100, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    14. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
    15. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    16. Jim Engle-Warnick & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2006. "An Experimental Test of Taylor-Type Rules with Inexperienced Central Bankers," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-05, CIRANO.
    17. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    18. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2015. "The conduct of monetary policy in the Eurozone before and after the financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 83-92.
    19. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre, une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01304310, HAL.
    20. Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis, 2008. "A Phillips curve to the Dominican Republic," MPRA Paper 15158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Naoto Soma, 2021. "Parameter Uncertainty and Effective Lower Bound Risk," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    22. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    23. Takeshi Kimura & Takushi Kurozumi, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
    25. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Case Colombian," Borradores de Economia 3629, Banco de la Republica.
    26. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Working Papers 2003.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    28. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    29. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2004-22, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    30. Yetman, James, 2003. "Probing potential output: Monetary policy, credibility, and optimal learning under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-330, September.
    31. Michel-Pierre Chelini & Georges Prat, 2011. "Cliométrie du chômage et des salaires en France, 1950-2008," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    32. Eric Swanson, 2000. "On Signal Extraction and Non-Certainty-Equivalence in Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1085, Econometric Society.
    33. Carola Conces Binder, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 81-123, June.
    34. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter Von zur Muehlen, 2000. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Brian P. Sack & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    37. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    38. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    39. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco manzo, 2005. "Policy Uncertainty, Symbiosis, and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Conservativeness," Macroeconomics 0508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Under Balanced Budget And Indeterminacy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(4), pages 455-472, September.
    41. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    42. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2021. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    43. Mr. Victor Gaiduch & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2000/158, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    45. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2005. "The Fed after Greenspan," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 317-332, Summer.
    46. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Paolo Surico, 2003. "Why are Federal Funds Rates so Smooth?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 39, Royal Economic Society.
    47. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 5, Econometric Society.
    48. Thomas Mayer, "undated". "Some Practical Aspects of Pluralism in Economics Truth is so important, however, that it behooves us not to jump to conclusions about it (Samuels, 1997)," Department of Economics 99-05, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    49. Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO.
    50. Ulf Söderström, 2002. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145, March.
    51. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    141. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2013. "Time series non-linearity in the real growth / recession-term spread relationship," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 047, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    142. Sugita, Katsuhiro & 杉田, 勝弘, 2006. "Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers 2006-14, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    143. Jari Hännikäinen, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 47-54, September.
    144. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    145. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
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    147. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
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    165. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    3. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2005. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Macroeconomics 0506017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Grégory LEVIEUGE & A. PENOT, 2008. "The Fed and the ECB : Why Such an Apparent Difference in Reactivity ?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1606, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q4), pages 35-58.
    8. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 687-712, September.
    9. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2006. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1461-1481, September.
    10. Corrado, L. & Holly, S., 2000. "Piecewise Linear Feedback Rules in a Non Linear Model of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from the US and the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0019, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 269, Econometric Society.
    13. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    14. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2004. "A vectorautoregressive investment model (VIM) and monetary policy transmission: panel evidence from German firms," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 107, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. Jesper Linde, 2001. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 986-1005, September.
    16. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Working Papers 2003.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    19. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España.
    20. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    22. Kevin D. Hoover & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Department of Economics 00-05, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    23. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    24. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    25. Éric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 357-388.
    26. Emmanuel Dubois & Jerome Hericourt & Valerie Mignon, 2009. "What if the euro had never been launched? A counterfactual analysis of the macroeconomic impact of euro membership," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2241-2255.
    27. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    28. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Jesper Linde, 2002. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 155-182.
    30. Olson, Eric & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "An evaluation of ECB policy in the Euro's big four," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 203-213.
    31. M sonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
    32. Steve Keen, 2013. "Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 228-254, June.
    33. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    34. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    35. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2003. "Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Mixing Feedback Rules and the Distribution of Inflation and Output," CEIS Research Paper 37, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    36. Marie Diron & Benoit Mojon, 2008. "Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 32(Q II), pages 33-45.
    37. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
    38. Diron, Marie & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Forecasting the central bank's inflation objective is a good rule of thumb," Working Paper Series 564, European Central Bank.
    39. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    40. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    41. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.

  9. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    2. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
    3. Kazutaka Kurasawa, 2017. "Forecasting US recession with the economic policy uncertainty indexes of policy categories," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 100-109.
    4. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    5. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2002. "Predicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 245-253, October.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    8. Mr. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 2004/039, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Karnizova, Lilia & Li, Jiaxiong (Chris), 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 261-265.
    10. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.
    11. Shang-Wu Yu & Shang-Wu Yu, 1999. "Estimation of the probit model with autocorrelated errors via the MCECM algorithm," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 409-412.
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  10. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy," Research Paper 9717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
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    4. Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
    5. Viñals, José, 2001. "Monetary Policy Issues in a Low Inflation Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  11. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach," Research Paper 9739, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
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    4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  12. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
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    33. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Information in Yield Spread Trades," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    36. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    38. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    39. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
    40. Ye, Zhen & Zhang, Fangzhu & Coffman, D’Maris & Xia, Senmao & Wang, Zhifeng & Zhu, Zhonghua, 2022. "China’s urban construction investment bond: Contextualising a financial tool for local government," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
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    1. Giuseppe Di Graziano & Lorenzo Torricelli, 2012. "Target Volatility Option Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-17.
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    5. P.J.G. Vlaar, 1996. "Methods to determine capital requirements for options," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(198), pages 351-373.
    6. Michele Mininni & Giuseppe Orlando & Giovanni Taglialatela, 2021. "Challenges in approximating the Black and Scholes call formula with hyperbolic tangents," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(1), pages 73-100, June.
    7. Patricia Jackson & David Maude & William Perraudin, 1998. "Bank Capital and Value at Risk," Bank of England working papers 79, Bank of England.

  16. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    1. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
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    3. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    4. Van Landschoot, Astrid, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank.
    5. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy," Research Paper 9717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Alison Tarditi, 1996. "Modelling the Australian Exchange Rate, Long Bond Yield and Inflationary Expectations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9608, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Sebastian Schich, 1999. "The information content of the German term structure regarding inflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 385-395.
    9. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative specifications of the German term structure and its information content regarding inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    11. Astrid Van Landschoot, 2004. "Determinants of Euro Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Working Paper Research 57, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Francisco Alonso-Sánchez & Juan Ayuso-Huertas & Jorge Martínez-Pagés, 2000. "El contenido informativo de los tipos de interés sobre la tasa de inflación española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(2), pages 455-471, May.
    15. Shinobu Nakagawa & Naoto Osawa, 2000. "Financial Market and Macroeconomic Volatility - Relationships and Some Puzzles -," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    16. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    17. Matthew C. Li, 2014. "The US zero-coupon yield spread as a predictor of excess daily stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 889-906, July.
    18. Jaroslav Brada & Karel Brůna, 2004. "Analýza citlivosti referenčních úrokových sazeb PRIBOR na změny repo sazby České národní banky [An analysis of PRIBOR interest rates sensitivity to changes in Czech national bank repo rate]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 601-621.
    19. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Mr. Rajan Goyal & Mr. K. Kanagasabapathy, 2002. "Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy," IMF Working Papers 2002/091, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Victor Zarnowitz, 2001. "The Old and the New in the U.S. Economic Expansion," Economics Program Working Papers 01-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    22. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    23. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1999. "The Information Content of the French and German Government Bond Tield Curves: Why Such Differences?," Working papers 61, Banque de France.
    24. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
    25. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2558, Banco de la Republica.
    26. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.
    27. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    28. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Two factors along the yield curve," Research Paper 9613, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    29. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald & Ian Marsh, 2011. "Remilitarization and the End of the Gold Bloc in 1936," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 305-321, September.
    30. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2018. "Bank liquidity creation and recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 64-75.
    31. Rossi, Giovanni, 2004. "Euro Weakness in the Late Nineties," MPRA Paper 90272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term-Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
    33. Boukhatem, Jamel & Sekouhi, Hayfa, 2017. "What does the bond yield curve tell us about Tunisian economic activity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 295-303.
    34. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
    35. Won-Gi Kim & Noh-Sun Kwark, 2012. "Leading Behavior of Interest Rate Term Spreads and Credit Risk Spreads in Korea," Working Papers 1203, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    36. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative Spezifikationen der deutschen Zinsstrukturkurve und ihr Informationsgehalt hinsichtlich der Inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    37. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    38. David McMillan, 2002. "Interest rate spread and real activity: evidence for the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 191-194.
    39. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1997. "Le contenu en information de la pente des taux : application au cas des titres publics fran ais," Working papers 43, Banque de France.
    42. N. Funke, 1997. "Yield spreads as predictors of recessions in a core European economic area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 695-697.
    43. Chay Fisher & Bruce Felmingham, 1998. "The Australian yield curve as a leading indicator of consumption growth," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 627-635.
    44. Joseph Dziwura & Irene Pedraza & Eli M. Remolona, 1995. "The short end of the forward convergence curve and asymmetric cat's tail convergence," Research Paper 9523, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    45. Angélica Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de literatura," Borradores de Economia 223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    46. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    47. Norbert Funke, 1997. "Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 90-102, March.
    48. Domac, Ilker, 1999. "The distributional consequences of monetary policy : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2170, The World Bank.
    49. Hedva Ber & Adi Brender & Sigal Ribon, 2004. "Are Fiscal and Monetary Policies reflected in Real Yields? Evidence from a period of Disinflation and Declining Deficit Targets," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 2(2), pages 15-44.
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Articles

  1. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 725-738, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Estrella, Arturo, 2015. "The Price Puzzle And Var Identification," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1880-1887, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2024. "Income inequality and monetary policy in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 332-355, January.
    2. Pablo de la Vega & Guido Zack & Jimena Calvo & Emiliano Libman, 2024. "Inflation Determinants in Argentina (2004-2022)," Papers 2405.20822, arXiv.org.
    3. Mansur, Alfan, 2019. "Sharia Banking Dynamics and the Macroeconomic Responses: Evidence from Indonesia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(2), pages 139-152.
    4. Tarron Khemraj & Sherry Yu, 2023. "Inflation Dynamics and Quantitative Easing," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 613-638, October.
    5. Goyal, Ashima & Parab, Prashant, 2021. "What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2021. "Inflation expectations of households in India: Role of oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and spillover of global financial uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 230-251, April.
    7. Hénock Muanza Katuala, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Monetary Stability And Economic Growth In The Democratic Republic Of Congo [Politique Monetaire, Stabilite Monetaire Et Croissance Economique En Republique Democratique Du Congo]," Working Papers hal-02616124, HAL.
    8. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, March.
    11. James Bishop & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Anticipatory Monetary Policy and the 'Price Puzzle'," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2019. "Shocking aspects of monetary policy on income inequality in the euro area," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    14. Ida, Daisuke, 2024. "Household heterogeneity and the price puzzle in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Ilhami Gunduz, 2021. "Stock market transmission channel of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6421-6443, October.

  3. Sebastian Schich & Arturo Estrella, 2015. "Valuing guaranteed bank debt: Role of strength and size of the bank and the guarantor," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 3(5), pages 19-32, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Nicole Allenspach & Oleg Reichmann & Javier Rodriguez-Martin, 2021. "Are banks still 'too big to fail'? - A market perspective," Working Papers 2021-18, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Mario Bellia & Sara Maccaferri & Sebastian Schich, 2022. "Limiting too-big-to-fail: market reactions to policy announcements and actions," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 368-389, December.

  4. Arturo Estrella & Sebastian Schich, 2012. "Sovereign and Banking Sector Debt: Interconnections through Guarantees," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(2), pages 21-45.

    Cited by:

    1. Antzoulatos, Angelos A. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Institutions, moral hazard and expected government support of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 161-171.
    2. Toader, Oana, 2015. "Quantifying and explaining implicit public guarantees for European banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 136-147.
    3. Vincenzo D’Apice & Giovanni Ferri & Punziana Lacitignola, 2016. "Rating Performance and Bank Business Models: Is There a Change with the 2007–2009 Crisis?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 2(3), pages 385-420, November.

  5. Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).

    Cited by:

    1. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    2. Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/35, University of Stavanger.
    3. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Colin Ellis, 2014. "Break-even maturity as a guide to financial distress," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(4), December.
    5. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    7. Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
    8. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    9. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2014. "Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Working Paper series 32_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Post-Print hal-01385900, HAL.
    12. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2023. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Working Papers 202314, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    13. Jens J. Krüger, 2014. "A multivariate evaluation of German output growth and inflation forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1410-1418.
    14. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    16. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," MPRA Paper 23514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Charlotte Christiansen, 2011. "Predicting Severe Simultaneous Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2011-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
    19. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2012. "In the shadow of the United States: the international transmission effect of asset returns," Globalization Institute Working Papers 121, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Adriana Fernandez & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    21. Monge, Manuel & Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria & Poza, Carlos, 2024. "Chinese economic behavior in times of covid-19. A new leading economic indicator based on Google trends," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    22. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    23. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
    24. Yizhan Shu & Chenyu Yu & John M. Mulvey, 2024. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Asset-Specific Regime Forecasts," Papers 2406.09578, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    25. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    26. Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
    27. Jos'e-Manuel Pe~na & Fernando Su'arez & Omar Larr'e & Domingo Ram'irez & Arturo Cifuentes, 2023. "A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation," Papers 2302.02269, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    28. Colla, Paolo & Hellowell, Mark & Vecchi, Veronica & Gatti, Stefano, 2015. "Determinants of the cost of capital for privately financed hospital projects in the UK," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(11), pages 1442-1449.
    29. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    30. Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
    31. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Javier Sosvilla Rivero, 2013. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-19, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    32. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    33. Ryan S. Mattson, 2019. "A Divisia User Cost Interpretation of the Yield Spread Recession Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, January.
    34. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“The Distributive Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies”," IREA Working Papers 201606, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    35. Michael Puglia & Adam Tucker, 2020. "Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Andreea Ocolișanu & Gabriela Dobrotă & Dan Dobrotă, 2022. "The Effects of Public Investment on Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    37. Robert L. Hetzel, 2017. "What Remains of Milton Friedman's Monetarism?," Working Paper 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    38. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    39. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," CEF.UP Working Papers 1004, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    40. Chris Kenyon & Andrew Green, 2013. "Regulatory-Optimal Funding," Papers 1310.3386, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2014.
    41. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Daniel H. Cooper & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2020. "Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy," Current Policy Perspectives 87522, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    43. Kiryoung LEE & Chanik JO, 2018. "Forecasting Chinese Business Cycle Using Long-term Interest Rate Comovements," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 118-134, December.
    44. Ferdi Botha & Gavin Keeton, 2014. "A Note on the (continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa," Working Papers 449, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    45. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Amanda C. Janosko & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "Supervising System Stress in Multiple Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    46. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    47. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    48. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.
    49. Krüger, Jens J., 2024. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 149438, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    50. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    51. Dongfeng Chang & Ryan S. Mattson & Biyan Tang, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
    52. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    53. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    54. Szymon Grabowski, 2007. "Real economic activity and state of financial markets," Working Papers 7, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    55. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Perspectives From the Past for the Federal Reserve¡¯s Monetary Policy and Communication," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 31-51, January.
    56. Gülden Poyraz & Ahmet İncekara, 2021. "On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 63(63), pages 199-211, June.
    57. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    58. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    59. Raffaele Passaro, 2007. "The Predictive Power of Interest Rates Spread for Economic Activity," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 81-112, November-.
    60. Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae, 2020. "Measuring Chinese consumers’ perceived uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 51-70.
    61. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    62. Todd Henry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    63. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    64. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    65. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Kim, Baeho, 2014. "Systematic cyclicality of systemic bubbles: Evidence from the U.S. commercial banking system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 281-297.
    66. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    67. Fischer, Henning & Stolper, Oscar, 2019. "The nonlinear dynamics of corporate bond spreads: Regime-dependent effects of their determinants," Discussion Papers 08/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    68. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
    69. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    70. Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim, 2011. "Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1387-1405, August.
    71. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    72. Sessi Tokpavi, 2013. "Testing for the Systemically Important Financial Institutions: a Conditional Approach," Working Papers hal-04141194, HAL.
    73. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    74. Schock, Matthias, 2015. "Predicting Economic Activity via Eurozone Yield Spreads: Impact of Credit Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-542, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    75. Sessi Tokpavi, 2013. "Testing for the Systemically Important Financial Institutions: a Conditional Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    76. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    77. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2014. "Identifying and forecasting house prices: a macroeconomic perspective," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2105-2120, December.
    78. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    79. Georgoutsos, Dimitris & Kounitis, Thomas, 2016. "Treasury yields and credit spread dynamics: A regime-switching approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 39-51.
    80. Yuen-Meng Wong, 2016. "Malaysia REITs: First Decade Development and Returns Characteristics," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 371-409.
    81. Jo, Yonghwan & Kim, Jihee & Santos, Francisco, 2022. "The impact of liquidity risk in the Chinese banking system on the global commodity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 23-50.
    82. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“The Distributive effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies”," AQR Working Papers 201606, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Apr 2016.

  7. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
    6. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    7. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    8. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-39, December.
    9. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2014. "Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Working Paper series 32_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. Keith Elliott & Gianluca Marcato, 2011. "Alternative investments: return driving actors," ERES eres2011_151, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," MPRA Paper 23514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Charlotte Christiansen, 2011. "Predicting Severe Simultaneous Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2011-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
    14. Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2009. "The stock market and aggregate employment," NBER Working Papers 15219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2012. "In the shadow of the United States: the international transmission effect of asset returns," Globalization Institute Working Papers 121, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
    17. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza & Antonio Moreno & Tommaso Trani, 2024. "Downturns and changes in the yield slope," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 673-701, April.
    18. Jamie L. Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Working Papers No 11/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    19. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
    20. Manqoba Ntshakala & Laurence Harris, 2018. "The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Emilios C. Galariotis & Panagiota Makrichoriti & Spyros Spyrou, 2016. "Sovereign CDS Spread Determinants and Spill-Over Effects During Financial Crisis: A Panel VAR Approach," Post-Print hal-01358715, HAL.
    22. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    25. Parley Ruogu Yang, 2020. "Using the yield curve to forecast economic growth," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1057-1080, November.
    26. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    28. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    29. Duc Do, Nguyen, 2024. "Money/asset ratio as a predictor of inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    30. Chiang, Min-Hsien & Huang, Hsin-Yi, 2011. "Stock market momentum, business conditions, and GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-505, June.
    31. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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  8. Arturo Estrella, 2004. "Bank Capital and Risk: Is Voluntary Disclosure Enough?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 145-160, October.

    Cited by:

    1. David VanHoose, 2006. "Bank Behavior Under Capital Regulation: What Does The Academic Literature Tell Us?," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    2. Romila Qamar & Shahid Mansoor Hashmi & Jaleel Ahmed & Ahmed N.K. AlFarra, 2016. "Are Capital Buffers Countercyclical ? An Evidence From Pakistan," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 123-146, September.
    3. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Zhang, Xiaoxiang & Wang, Chaoke, 2016. "Invisible hand discipline from informed trading: Does market discipline from trading affect bank capital structure?," MPRA Paper 76215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sophia I-Ling Wang, 2018. "Bank External Financing and Early Adoption of SFAS 133," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-40, September.
    5. Christophe J. GODLEWSKI & Dorota SKALA & Laurent WEILL, 2018. "Is Lending by Polish Cooperative Banks Procyclical?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2018-09, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    6. Délio José Cordeiro Galvão & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça & Renato Falci Villela Loures, 2011. "Economic Activity And Financialinstitutional Risk: An Empirical Analysis For The Banking Industry," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 088, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Helder Mendonça & Renato Villela Loures, 2009. "Market discipline in the Brazilian banking industry: an analysis for the subordinated debt holders," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 286-307, December.
    8. J. Mukuddem-Petersen & M. A. Petersen, 2008. "Optimizing Asset and Capital Adequacy Management in Banking," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 205-230, April.
    9. D'Avino, Carmela & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2010. "Opacity of Banks and Runs with Solvency," MPRA Paper 24166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Niinimaki, J.-P., 2012. "Hidden loan losses, moral hazard and financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14.
    11. VanHoose, David, 2007. "Theories of bank behavior under capital regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3680-3697, December.
    12. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Délio José Cordeiro Galvão & Renato Falci Villela Loures, 2012. "Financial regulation and transparency of information: evidence from banking industry," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 380-397, August.
    13. Han, Ruoning & Muyeed, Ahadul Kabir, 2024. "Deposit competition and effectiveness of bank capital requirements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital Regulation and Banks' Financial Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 165-211, March.
    15. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Délio José Cordeiro Galvão & Renato Falci Villela Loures, 2011. "Financial Regulation and Transparency of Information: first steps on new land," Working Papers Series 248, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

  9. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Chami, Ralph & Cosimano, Thomas F., 2010. "Monetary policy with a touch of Basel," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 161-175, May.
    2. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Internal Ratings Systems, Implied Credit Risk and the Consistency of Banks’ Risk Classification Policies," Working Paper Series 155, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "How Cyclical Is Bank Capital?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 27-38, August.
    4. David VanHoose, 2006. "Bank Behavior Under Capital Regulation: What Does The Academic Literature Tell Us?," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    5. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2005. "Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3159-3179, December.
    6. Ghosh, Saibal, 2008. "Capital requirements, bank behavior and monetary policy: A theoretical analysis with an empirical application to India," MPRA Paper 17306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - Banks` choice of loan rating system," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  10. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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    1. David Kiefer, 2016. "Policy effectiveness is limited by a flat Phillips curve, stabilization as practiced in Europe and the US," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2016_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
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    3. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    4. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
    7. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 78, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Andrew T. Young & Alexander K. Blue, 2007. "Retail prices during a change in monetary regimes: evidence from Sears, Roebuck catalogs, 1938-1951," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 763-775.
    9. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2007. "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability: The case of Spain, 1964-2002," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 453-462.
    10. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
    11. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    18. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
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    22. Ascari, Guido & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for consumption in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 129-152.
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    24. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0632, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    25. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    27. John C. Williams, 2005. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 53-81.
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    29. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan, 2007. "The natural rate of interest: which concept? which estimation method? which policy conclusions?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 667-688.
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    32. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    34. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de rupture : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    35. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo.
    36. Zhang, Chengsi & Clovis, Joel, 2010. "China inflation dynamics: Persistence and policy regimes," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 373-388, May.
    37. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2016. "On the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique: the case of euro area money demand," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 61-82, February.
    39. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2010. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts: New Evidence From Time‐Varying Interest Rate Rules," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 933-950, October.
    40. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    41. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    42. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
    43. Dong Jin Lee & Jong Chil Son, 2011. "Nonlinearity and Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules with Stock Prices," Working papers 2011-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    44. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    45. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    46. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    47. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    48. Mikolajun, Irena & Lodge, David, 2016. "Advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors," Working Paper Series 1948, European Central Bank.
    49. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    50. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2006. "Ideal and Real Japanese Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis of Actual and Optimal Policy Measures," MPRA Paper 70688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 622-629.
    52. Lee, Dong Jin & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in multiple quantiles and the asymmetry of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-114.
    53. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May.
    54. Chengsi Zhang, 2008. "Structural instability of US inflation persistence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1147-1151.
    55. Corvoisier, Sandrine & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation: how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 451, European Central Bank.
    56. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Marco Casiraghi & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Olamide Harrison & Mr. Güneş Kamber, 2023. "Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2023/143, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
    58. Fiodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," MPRA Paper 27942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Post-Print halshs-00943753, HAL.
    60. Kiefer, David, 2015. "Targets and lags in a two-equation model of US stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 18-24.
    61. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
    62. Chengsi Zhang, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 40-55, May.
    63. Steve Keen, 2013. "Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 228-254, June.
    64. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    65. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    66. FIodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian monetary policy respond to asset prices? Evidence from a structural model," MPRA Paper 28039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    67. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    68. Malikane, Christopher, 2024. "Traditional output dynamics: A structural perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    69. Daniel Komlan Fiodendji, 2012. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," Working Papers 1209E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    70. Choi, Yoonseok & Kim, Sunghyun, 2016. "Testing an alternative price-setting behavior in the new Keynesian Phillips curve: Extrapolative price-setting mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 253-265.
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    72. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    73. Batabyal, Sourav & Islam, Faridul & Khaznaji, Maher, 2018. "On the sources of the Great Moderation: Role of monetary policy and intermediate inputs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-9.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hidalgo, Javier & Schafgans, Marcia, 2017. "Inference and testing breaks in large dynamic panels with strong cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 259-274.
    2. Javier Hidalgo & Marcia M Schafgans, 2015. "Inference and Testing Breaks in Large Dynamic Panels with Strong Cross Sectional Dependence," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2015/583, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    3. Dukpa Kim & Pierre Perron, 2006. "Assessing the Relative Power of Structural Break Tests Using a Framework Based on the Approximate Bahadur Slope," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2010. "Regime Specific Predictability in Predictive Regressions," MPRA Paper 29190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Piterbarg, Vladimir I. & Rodionov, Igor V., 2020. "High excursions of Bessel and related random processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(8), pages 4859-4872.
    6. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    7. Omtzigt, Pieter & Paruolo, Paolo, 2005. "Impact factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 31-68, September.
    8. K. B. S. Huth & L. J. Waldorp & J. Luigjes & A. E. Goudriaan & R. J. Holst & M. Marsman, 2022. "A Note on the Structural Change Test in Highly Parameterized Psychometric Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 1064-1080, September.
    9. Chen, Sanpan & Cui, Guowei & Zhang, Jianhua, 2017. "On testing for structural break of coefficients in factor-augmented regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 141-145.
    10. Tom Campbell & Nathaniel T. Wilcox, 2020. "Younger Federal District Court Judges Favor Presidential Power," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 181-202.
    11. Charles-Elie Rabier & Jean-Marc Azaïs & Jean-Michel Elsen & Céline Delmas, 2019. "Chi-square processes for gene mapping in a population with family structure," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 239-271, February.
    12. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    13. Matthew Davis & Fernando V. Ferreira, 2017. "Housing Disease and Public School Finances," NBER Working Papers 24140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217tris, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    15. A. Batsidis & N. Martín & L. Pardo & K. Zografos, 2016. "ϕ-Divergence Based Procedure for Parametric Change-Point Problems," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 21-35, March.
    16. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.
    17. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    19. Carlos Castro & Stijn Ferrari, 2011. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Documentos de Trabajo 8779, Universidad del Rosario.
    20. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    21. Sandip Sinharay, 2016. "Person Fit Analysis in Computerized Adaptive Testing Using Tests for a Change Point," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 41(5), pages 521-549, October.
    22. Hidalgo, Javier & Schafgans, Marcia, 2017. "Inference and testing breaks in large dynamic panels with strong cross sectional dependence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68839, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Li, Kunpeng, 2018. "Spatial panel data models with structural change," MPRA Paper 85388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Davis, Matthew & Ferreira, Fernando, 2022. "Housing disease and public school finances," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

  13. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.

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    1. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2418, CESifo.
    2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation," Working Papers 00-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "An Optimizing Model of U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics," Departmental Working Papers 200110, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artifact?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0016, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    6. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    7. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2005. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland.
    8. Amina Al Naabi & Shekar Bose, 2020. "Do Regulatory Measures Necessarily Affect Oman’s Seafood Export-Supply?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, August.
    9. James M. Nason & Takashi Kano, 2004. "Business Cycle Implications of Habit Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    11. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "A Reappraisal of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff," IZA Discussion Papers 636, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    13. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.
    15. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2009. "Inflation persistence," Working Papers 09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
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    22. Proaño, Christian R., 2012. "Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 220-235.
    23. Mark Crosby & Tim Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2006. "How costly is exchange rate stabilisation for an inflation targeter? The case of Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    24. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Basic Calvo and P-Bar Models of Price Adjustment: A Comparison," Kiel Working Papers 1361, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    25. Richard Dennis, 2001. "The policy preferences of the U.S. Federal Reserve," Working Paper Series 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    26. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2005. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Macroeconomics 0506017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Volker Hahn, 2021. "Discretionary policy and multiple equilibria in a new Keynesian model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 423-445.
    28. Grégory LEVIEUGE & A. PENOT, 2008. "The Fed and the ECB : Why Such an Apparent Difference in Reactivity ?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1606, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    29. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David & Small, David, 2003. "A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 145-164.
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    32. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "Monetary policy, inflation expectations and the price puzzle," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 30/2009, Bank of Finland.
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    34. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, February.
    35. Miguel Casares & Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Framework with Endogenous Investment," NBER Working Papers 7908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    41. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2018. "Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic Theory," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 65-101.
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    44. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Macroeconomic modeling when agents are imperfectly informed," Discussion Papers 6_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    45. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    46. Takeshi Kimura & Takushi Kurozumi, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The frequency of price adjustment and New Keynesian business cycle dynamics," Working Paper Series 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    48. Richard Mash, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Economics Series Working Papers 109, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    49. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    50. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank.
    51. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    52. Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Reconsideration of the P-Bar Model of Gradual Price Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 14163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    54. Ricardo Nunes, 2009. "On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 643-657, October.
    55. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Macro Dynamics in a Model with Uncertainty," Working Papers (-2012) 0704, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    56. Florin Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2012. "Changes in the Output Euler Equation and Asset Markets Participation," Post-Print hal-00680647, HAL.
    57. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
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    3. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 198-211, March.
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    5. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Response of Venezuelan output to monetary policy, deficit spending, and currency depreciation: a VAR model," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
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    11. Silva Buston, C.F., 2013. "Active Risk Management and Banking Stability," Other publications TiSEM 18a8d09e-79af-4993-8d64-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    13. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
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    38. Martin Scheicher, 2003. "Credit Derivatives - Overview and Implications for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 5, pages 96-111.
    39. Perera, Anil & Ralston, Deborah & Wickramanayake, J., 2014. "Impact of off-balance sheet banking on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from South Asia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 195-216.
    40. Silva Buston, C.F., 2013. "Active Risk Management and Banking Stability," Other publications TiSEM 1236246e-0f52-4a46-aeec-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    41. Mohammed Dore & Roelof Makken & Erik Eastman, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Non-residential Fixed Investment and Housing," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 215-224, September.
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    45. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Housing, housing finance, and monetary policy: a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: opening remarks," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-20.
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    47. Babu Baradwaj & Michaël Dewally & Yingying Shao, 2015. "Does Securitization Support Entrepreneurial Activity?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
    48. Athanasios G. Panagopoulos & Thomas Chatzigagios & Ioannis Dokas, 2018. "The Global Single and Regulated Market Framework of Financial Products and the International Economic Policies: Mathematical Approach of the Model," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, April.
    49. Davide Castellani, 2018. "Mortgage†backed Securitization and SME Lending During the Financial and Economic Crisis: Evidence from the Italian Cooperative Banking System," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 47(1), pages 187-222, February.
    50. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "\"Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism,\" Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper: a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium, Jackson ," Speech 312, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Greg Hannsgen, 2004. "Borrowing Alone: The Theory and Policy Implications of the Commodification of Finance," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_401, Levy Economics Institute.
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    54. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Banca centrale e innovazione finanziaria. Una rassegna della letteratura recente," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(220), pages 345-385.
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    57. Christoffer Kok S�rensen & David Marqu�s Ib��ez & Carlotta Rossi, 2012. "Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 857, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    58. Battaglia, Francesca & Gallo, Angela & Mazzuca, Maria, 2014. "Securitized banking and the Euro financial crisis: Evidence from the Italian banks risk-taking," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 85-100.
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  15. Estrella, Arturo, 2001. "Mixing and matching: Prospective financial sector mergers and market valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2367-2392, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Stiroh, Kevin J. & Rumble, Adrienne, 2006. "The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2131-2161, August.
    2. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2021. "Portfolio analysis of big US banks’ performance: the fee business lines factor," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 112-132, June.
    3. Chen, Ting-Hsuan & Lu, Chia-Wu & Hsieh, Meng-Fen, 2022. "Onshore guarantees for offshore loans and bank risk-taking: Evidences from Taiwanese banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Elsas, Ralf & Hackethal, Andreas & Holzhäuser, Markus, 2010. "The anatomy of bank diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1274-1287, June.
    5. Chen, Zhian & Li, Donghui & Liao, Li & Moshirian, Fariborz & Szablocs, Csaba, 2009. "Expansion and consolidation of bancassurance in the 21st century," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 633-644, October.
    6. Nadine Gatzert & Hato Schmeiser & Stefan Schuckmann, 2008. "Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 22(3), pages 241-258, September.
    7. Ines Ayadi, 2014. "Bancassurance in Tunisia: What Are the Efficiency Gains?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(3), pages 159-166, July.
    8. Saoussen Ben Gamra & Dominique Plihon, 2011. "Revenue diversification in emerging market banks: implications for financial performance," Papers 1107.0170, arXiv.org.
    9. Lin Lin & Hsien-Chang Kuo & I-Liang Lin, 2008. "Merger and optimal number of firms: an integrated simulation approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2413-2421.
    10. Fields, L. Paige & Fraser, Donald R. & Kolari, James W., 2007. "Bidder returns in bancassurance mergers: Is there evidence of synergy?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3646-3662, December.
    11. Boubakri, Narjess & Dionne, Georges & Triki, Thouraya, 2008. "Consolidation and value creation in the insurance industry: The role of governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 56-68, January.
    12. De Vries, C.G., 2005. "The simple economics of bank fragility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 803-825, April.
    13. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June.
    14. Slijkerman, Jan Frederik & Schoenmaker, Dirk & de Vries, Casper G., 2013. "Systemic risk and diversification across European banks and insurers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 773-785.
    15. Elsas, Ralf & Hackethal, Andreas & Holzhaeuser, Markus, 2006. "The Anatomy of Bank Diversification," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 1167, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    16. Lee Soon-Jae & Jung Sechang & Lee Bong-Joo, 2006. "Does Bancassurance Increase the Efficiency of the Financial Industry? A Case for Korea," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Nestorov Valentina, 2017. "Convergence in the Functioning of Banking and Nonbanking Financial Institutions in Serbia," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 55(3), pages 353-376, September.
    18. Financial Systems and Bank Examination Department, 2005. "The Expansion of Corporate Groups in the Financial Services Industry: Trends in Financial Conglomeration in Major Industrial Countries," Bank of Japan Research Papers 2005-12-28, Bank of Japan.
    19. Chiaramonte, Laura & Dreassi, Alberto & Piserà, Stefano & Khan, Ashraf, 2023. "Mergers and acquisitions in the financial industry: A bibliometric review and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Mühlnickel, Janina & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Consolidation and systemic risk in the international insurance industry," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 187-202.
    21. Rubi Ahmad & Mohamed Ariff & Michael Skully, 2007. "Factors Determining Mergers of Banks in Malaysia’s Banking Sector Reform," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-31, March-Jun.
    22. Mamun, Abdullah, 2023. "Understanding growth and its policy implications for Canadian credit unions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 652-665.
    23. Vallascas, Francesco & Hagendorff, Jens, 2011. "The impact of European bank mergers on bidder default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 902-915, April.
    24. Oleg Curbatov & Marie Louyot-Gallicher, 2015. "Knowedge Marketing," Post-Print hal-01423209, HAL.
    25. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "Off-Balance-Sheet Activities and the Shadow Banking System: An Application of the Hausman Test with Higher Moments Instruments," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    26. Mamun, Abdullah & Meier, Garrett & Wilson, Craig, 2023. "How do noninterest income activities affect bank holding company performance?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
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    28. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2023. "Bank performance before and after the subprime crisis: Evidence from pooled data on big US banks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 472-516, June.
    29. Saoussen Ben Gamra & Dominique Plihon, 2011. "Revenue diversification in emerging market banks: implications for financial performance," Working Papers hal-00598136, HAL.
    30. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2013. "The change in banks' product mix, diversification and performance: An application of multivariate GARCH to Canadian data," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp012013, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    31. Went, Peter, 2003. "A quantitative analysis of qualitative arguments in a bank merger," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 379-403.
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    33. G. Capece & Di Pillo Francesca & N. Levialdi & G. Perrotta, 2017. "Understanding How the Strategic Similarities between Energy Companies Influence the Post-mergers and Acquisitions Performances," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 78-89.
    34. Christian Calm¨¨s & Raymond Th¨¦oret, 2016. "The Asymmetric Impact of Portfolio Mix on Bank Performance over the Business Cycle: U.S. and Canadian Evidence," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 57-74, February.
    35. Dionne, Georges & Fenou, Akouété & Mnasri, Mohamed, 2023. "Consolidation of the US property and casualty insurance industry: Is climate risk a causal factor for mergers and acquisitions?," Working Papers 23-1, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    36. Barbara Casu & Panagiotis Dontis†Charitos & Sotiris Staikouras & Jonathan Williams, 2016. "Diversification, Size and Risk: the Case of Bank Acquisitions of Nonbank Financial Firms," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), pages 235-275, March.
    37. Korhonen, Pekka & Voutilainen, Raimo, 2006. "Finding the most preferred alliance structure between banks and insurance companies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 1285-1299, December.
    38. Dionne, Georges & Fenou, Akouété & Mnasri, Mohamed, 2024. "Insurers’ M&A in the United States during the 1990-2022 period: Is the Fed monetary policy a causal factor," Working Papers 24-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management, revised 16 Jul 2024.
    39. Kanas, Angelos & Vasiliou, Dimitrios & Eriotis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 990-1005.

  16. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.

    Cited by:

    1. Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," Working Papers hal-04141595, HAL.
    2. Chen, Sichong, 2013. "How do leverage ratios affect bank share performance during financial crises: The Japanese experience of the late 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," Post-Print hal-01671522, HAL.
    4. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2016. "Interdependencies between Leverage and Capital Ratios in the Central and Eastern European Banks," MPRA Paper 74560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Robert Bichsel & Jürg Blum, 2002. "The Relationship between Risk and Capital in Swiss commercial Banks: A Panel Study," Working Papers 02.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    6. Huberto M. Ennis, 2004. "Some recent trends in commercial banking," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Spr), pages 41-61.
    7. Andrés Felipe García-Suaza & Jose Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés Murcia pabón & Feenando tenjo Galarza, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Bank Capital Buffers in an Emerging Economy: Size Does Matter," Borradores de Economia 8305, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Korte, Josef, 2015. "Catharsis—The real effects of bank insolvency and resolution," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 213-231.
    9. Vazquez, Francisco & Federico, Pablo, 2015. "Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Di Guilmi, Corrado & Gallegati, Mauro & Giulioni, Gianfranco, 2007. "Financial Fragility, Industrial Dynamics, And Business Fluctuations In An Agent-Based Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 62-79, November.
    11. Koutras, Vasileios M. & Koutras, Markos V. & Yalcin, Femin, 2016. "A simple compound scan statistic useful for modeling insurance and risk management problems," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 202-209.
    12. Chiaramonte, Laura & Casu, Barbara, 2017. "Capital and liquidity ratios and financial distress. Evidence from the European banking industry," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 138-161.
    13. Antzoulatos, Angelos A. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Institutions, moral hazard and expected government support of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 161-171.
    14. Stefania VITALI & Gabriele TEDESCHI, 2011. "The impact of classes of innovators on Technology, Financial Fragility and Economic Growth," Working Papers 370, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Zhivaikina, A. & Peresetsky, A., 2017. "Russian Bank Credit Ratings and Bank License Withdrawal 2012-2016," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 49-80.
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    38. José E. Gómez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2009. "Bank Failure: Evidence From The Colombian Financial Crisis," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(2), pages 15-31.
    39. Gallemore, J., 2012. "Deferred Tax Assests and Bank Regulatory Capital," Other publications TiSEM c4ed0879-0d89-4594-a8f5-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    43. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, "undated". "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    44. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
    45. Tonatiuh Peña & Serafín Martínez & Bolanle Abudu, 2011. "Bankruptcy Prediction: A Comparison of Some Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Herbert Dawid & Willi Semmler (ed.), Computational Methods in Economic Dynamics, pages 109-131, Springer.
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    47. G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2005. "Failure prediction in the Russian bank sector with logit and trait recognition models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/329, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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    86. Karel Janda & Oleg Kravtsov, 2018. "Basel III Leverage and Capital Ratio over the Economic Cycle in the Czech Republic and its Comparison with the CEE Region," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(4), pages 5-23.
    87. Firano, Zakaria & Filali adib, Fatine, 2018. "Prevision des difficultes bancaires : un modele d'alerte precoce pour le cas du maroc [Prediction of banking difficulties: an early warning model for moroccan banking system]," MPRA Paper 95165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    90. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2006. "Explaining time to bank failure in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s," Borradores de Economia 400, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    91. Hogan, Thomas L., 2015. "Capital and risk in commercial banking: A comparison of capital and risk-based capital ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 32-45.
    92. Lakshmi Balasubramanyan, 2014. "Differential Capital Requirements: Leverage Ratio versus Risk-Based Capital Ratio from a Monitoring Perspective," Working Papers (Old Series) 1415, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    93. Salami Abdulai Agbaje & Uthman Ahmad Bukola, 2018. "Bank Capital, Operating Efficiency, and Corporate Performance in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 61-87.
    94. Calice, Pietro, 2014. "Predicting bank insolvency in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6969, The World Bank.
    95. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    96. Konstantinos Drakos, 2012. "US banks' capitalization speed‐of‐adjustment: a microeconometric approach," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 270-286, July.
    97. J.A. Bikker & D.F. Gerritsen & Steffie M. Schwillens, 2016. "Competing for savings: how important is creditworthiness during the crisis?," Working Papers 16-01, Utrecht School of Economics.
    98. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2023. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_446, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    99. J. Navas & P. Dhanavanthan & D. Lazar, 2021. "Is Risk Based Capital Ratio a True Measure of the Soundness of Banks? Evidence From India," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 92-102, May.
    100. Stelios Markoulis & Panagiotis Ioannou & Spiros Martzoukos, 2023. "Bank distress in the European Union 2008–2015: A closer look at capital, size and revenue diversification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 792-820, January.
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    102. Ehab Zaki & Rahim Bah & Ananth Rao, 2011. "Assessing probabilities of financial distress of banks in UAE," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 304-320, June.
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    105. Kraft, Evan & Galac, Tomislav, 2007. "Deposit interest rates, asset risk and bank failure in Croatia," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 312-336, March.
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  17. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "The Future of Regulatory Capital: General Principles and Specific Proposals," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 599-616, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Ernst Baltensperger, 1998. "The Question of Bank Capital Regulation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 645-648, December.

  18. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Oct), pages 191-200.

    Cited by:

    1. David T. Llewellyn, 2001. "A regulatory regime for financial stability," Working Papers 48, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2004. "Rebalancing the three pillars of Basel II," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 7-21.
    3. Mingo, John J., 2000. "Policy implications of the Federal Reserve study of credit risk models at major US banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 15-33, January.
    4. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, "undated". "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Daoud Barkat Daoud, 2003. "Quelle réglementation du capital bancaire pour les pays en développement ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(4), pages 311-323.
    6. João A. C. Santos, 2000. "Bank capital regulation in contemporary banking theory: a review of the literature," BIS Working Papers 90, Bank for International Settlements.

  19. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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    3. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
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    6. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
    7. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    8. Ulrich Fritsche & Felix Marklein, 2001. "Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0012021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jan Annaert & Marc De Ceuster & Patrick Van Roy & Cristina Vespro, 2010. "What determines euro area bank CDS spreads ?," Working Paper Research 190, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    13. He, Xiaoli & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard & Ligthart, Jenny, 2013. "On the impact of the global financial crisis on the euro area," Research Report 13011-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    14. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2014. "Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Working Paper series 32_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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    17. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
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    44. Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "Do the US and Canada have a common nonlinear cycle in unemployment?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9907-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    45. Dionisios Chionis & Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, February.
    46. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "International Evidence of the Predictability of Prices of Securititised Real Estate Assets: Econometric Models versus Neural Networks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    47. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
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    50. André Nunes Maranhão, 2024. "Brazilian Business Cycle Analysis in a High-Dimensional and Time-Irregular Span Context," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 1-58, August.
    51. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
    52. EL FAIZ, Zakaria & ZIANI, Manal, 2016. "Influence de la politique monétaire sur le taux long Quelques évidences empiriques, cas du Maroc [The impact of monetary on long rates : Some empirical evidence from Morocco]," MPRA Paper 72817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    61. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    62. Francesco Campigli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Maria Cristina Recchioni, 2021. "The talkative variables of the hybrid Heston model: Yields’ maturity and economic (in)stability," Working Papers 2021/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
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    1. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
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    4. Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Post-Print hal-01385900, HAL.
    5. Elizaveta V. Anufrieva, 2019. "Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Return of Russian Stock Exchange Indices," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 75-87, August.
    6. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    7. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2010. "The US inflation-unemployment trade-off revisited: New evidence for policy-making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 758-777, November.
    8. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    9. Lorenzo Bencivelli & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluca Moretti, 2017. "Forecasting economic activity by Bayesian bridge model averaging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 21-40, August.
    10. Mr. Prakash Kannan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart," IMF Working Papers 2009/178, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
    14. Chang, Xin & Chen, Yunling & Dasgupta, Sudipto, 2019. "Macroeconomic conditions, financial constraints, and firms’ financing decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 242-255.
    15. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo corto de la estructura a plazo como predictor de expectativas de la actividad económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2559, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Rangan Gupta & Marian Risse & David A. Volkman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Term Spread and Pattern Changes in Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test Using Over 250 Years of Data," Working Papers 201755, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    35. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
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    37. Antoniou, Antonios & Zhao, Huainan & Zhou, Bilei, 2009. "Corporate debt issues and interest rate risk management: Hedging or market timing?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 500-520, August.
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    40. Brice V. Dupoyet & Corey A. Shank, 2018. "Oil prices implied volatility or direction: Which matters more to financial markets?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(3), pages 275-295, August.
    41. Kian Tehranian, 2023. "Can Machine Learning Catch Economic Recessions Using Economic and Market Sentiments?," Papers 2308.16200, arXiv.org.
    42. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2023. "Yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from a DSGE model with housing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    43. Melvin Muzi Khomo & Meshach Jesse Aziakpono, 2007. "Forecasting Recession In South Africa: A Comparison Of The Yield Curve And Other Economic Indicators," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 194-212, June.
    44. Ferdi Botha & Gavin Keeton, 2014. "A Note on the (continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa," Working Papers 449, Economic Research Southern Africa.
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    46. John A. Doukas & Jie (Michael) Guo & Bilei Zhou, 2011. "‘Hot’ Debt Markets and Capital Structure," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 46-99, January.
    47. Dennis Nsafoah & Apostolos Serletis, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Spreads," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 707-727, July.
    48. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Gee Hee Hong & John Kandrac, 2022. "Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 1027-1063, June.
    50. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2011. "Giving Flexibility to the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 27-49.
    51. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    52. Dongfeng Chang & Ryan S. Mattson & Biyan Tang, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
    53. Marius M. Mihai, 2020. "Do credit booms predict US recessions?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 887-910, September.
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    55. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
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    59. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Glen Larsen & Bruce Resnick, 2008. "Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 22(1), pages 21-45, March.
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    66. Tobias Adrian & Michael J. Fleming, 2005. "What financing data reveal about dealer leverage," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Mar).
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    Cited by:

    1. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.

  25. Arturo Estrella, 1995. "A prolegomenon to future capital requirements," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-12.

    Cited by:

    1. Darryll Hendricks & Beverly Hirtle, 1997. "Bank capital requirements for market risk: the internal models approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 1-12.
    2. Franz R. Hahn, 2001. "Macroprudential Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," WIFO Working Papers 154, WIFO.
    3. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Oct), pages 191-200.
    4. Mingo, John J., 2000. "Policy implications of the Federal Reserve study of credit risk models at major US banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 15-33, January.
    5. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Research Paper 9710, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. von Hagen, Jürgen & Fender, Ingo, 1998. "Central bank policy in a more perfect financial system," ZEI Working Papers B 03-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Financial Consolidation: Dangers and Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 6655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    9. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "The Future of Regulatory Capital: General Principles and Specific Proposals," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 599-616, December.
    10. Beverly Hirtle & Mark E. Levonian & Marc R. Saidenberg & Stefan Walter & David M. Wright, 2001. "Using credit risk models for regulatory capital: issues and options," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 19-36.
    11. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Risk Measurement, Risk Management and Capital Adequacy in Financial Conglomerates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-02, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.

  26. Arturo Estrella & Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Soo Shin & Stefan Walter, 1994. "The price risk of options positions: measurement and capital requirements," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Sum), pages 44-75.

    Cited by:

    1. Powell, Andrew & Balzarotti, Verónica, 1997. "Capital Requirements for Latin American Banks in Relation to their Market Risks: The Relevance of the Basle 1996 Amendment to Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6065, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Vlaar, Peter J. G., 2000. "Value at risk models for Dutch bond portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1131-1154, July.
    3. Andrew Powell & Veronica Balzarotti, 1997. "Requisitos de capital de los bancos latinoamericanos en relación con sus niveles de riesgo de mercado: importancia de la Enmienda de Basilea de 1996 para América Latina," Research Department Publications 4073, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Michel Aglietta, 1996. "Financial Market Failures and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 1996-01, CEPII research center.
    5. Wilson Calmon & Eduardo Ferioli & Davi Lettieri & Johann Soares & Adrian Pizzinga, 2021. "An Extensive Comparison of Some Well‐Established Value at Risk Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(1), pages 148-166, April.
    6. Beate Reszat, 1997. "Sources of increasing systemic risk in international financial markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 32(5), pages 211-219, September.
    7. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-wei William Lin, 2004. "Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 679-691.

  27. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Arturo Estrella, 1988. "Consistent margin requirements: are they feasible?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Sum), pages 61-79.

    Cited by:

    1. Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 2001. "Race to the center: competition for the Nikkei 225 futures trade," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 219-242, July.
    2. Peter Fortune, 2003. "Margin requirements across equity-related instruments: how level is the playing field?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 31-50.

Chapters

  1. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Productivity, monetary policy and financial indicators," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 166-76, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Julien Matheron, 2005. "Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and monetary policy: stylised facts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 273-98, Bank for International Settlements.

  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Books

    Sorry, no citations of books recorded.
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