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The lead of oil price rises on US equity market beliefs and preferences

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  • Jonathan Dark

Abstract

We find that oil price rises from a strengthening global economy have a state‐dependent lead on US equity market beliefs and preferences. When equity volatility is low, rising oil prices lead higher cashflow expectations, lower long‐run (LR) volatility, and increased LR risk aversion. When volatility is high, markets focus on the contractionary effects of higher input costs, with rising oil prices leading decreased cashflow expectations, higher LR volatility, and decreased LR risk aversion. Findings suggest important refinements for asset pricing, portfolio choice, and models that link financial markets to the macroeconomy.

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  • Jonathan Dark, 2021. "The lead of oil price rises on US equity market beliefs and preferences," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1861-1887, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:41:y:2021:i:11:p:1861-1887
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22247
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    2. Qin Zhang & Jin Boon Wong, 2022. "Do oil shocks impact stock liquidity?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 472-491, March.

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