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Predicting US recessions with stock market illiquidity

Author

Listed:
  • Chen Shiu-Sheng

    (Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan)

  • Chou Yu-Hsi

    (Department of Economics, Fu-Jen Catholic University, No.510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City, Taiwan)

  • Yen Chia-Yi

    (Department of Finance, National Taiwan University and Quantitative Strategies Department, Risksoft Technology Ltd., Taipei City, Taiwan)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the illiquidity measure proposed by (Amihud, Y. 2002. “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects.” Journal of Financial Markets 5: 375–340) has strong power in predicting recessions. Moreover, the predictability of the illiquidity measure of small firms is found to be stronger than that of large firms, which supports the hypothesis of “flight to liquidity.”

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Shiu-Sheng & Chou Yu-Hsi & Yen Chia-Yi, 2016. "Predicting US recessions with stock market illiquidity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 93-123, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:16:y:2016:i:1:p:93-123:n:7
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2015-0009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oral Erdogan & Paul Bennett & Cenktan Ozyildirim, 2015. "Recession Prediction Using Yield Curve and Stock Market Liquidity Deviation Measures," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 407-422.
    2. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    3. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    4. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Does business confidence matter for investment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
    2. Saumya Ranjan Dash & Debasish Maitra & Byomakesh Debata & Jitendra Mahakud, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity: Evidence from G7 countries," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 611-626, June.
    3. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "Financial market illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 225-236.
    4. Ellington, Michael & Fu, Xi & Zhu, Yunyi, 2023. "Real estate illiquidity and returns: A time-varying regional perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 58-72.
    5. Chia‐Yi Yen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2020. "Understanding The Macroeconomic Impact Of Illiquidity Shocks In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1245-1278, July.
    6. Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2016. "Bond Liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/16, University of Stavanger.
    7. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Chen, Yong & Eaton, Gregory W. & Paye, Bradley S., 2018. "Micro(structure) before macro? The predictive power of aggregate illiquidity for stock returns and economic activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 48-73.
    9. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock price crash risk: The mitigating role of ESG performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    probit model; recession; stock market illiquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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