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Predicting real growth using the yield curve

Author

Listed:
  • Ann M. Dombrosky
  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ann M. Dombrosky & Joseph G. Haubrich, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1996:i:qi:p:26-35
    as

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    File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Review/1996/96-q1-haubrich.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
    3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
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