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Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence

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  • Mili, Mehdi
  • Sahut, Jean-Michel
  • Teulon, Frédéric

Abstract

This paper deals with transition mechanisms through which financial market conditions affect real economic growth in the Euro area. The informational content of financial variables for predicting real economic growth is assessed, allowing for asymmetric responses to shocks. A nonlinear framework is developed based on a smooth transition model for which the effects of shocks can vary across business cycles when financial indicators modify both the endogenous and state variables. Global financial variables are shown to significantly affect real growth in the Euro area, particularly during periods of recession. Changes in stock market index and yield slope have asymmetric effects on real growth. In recessionary periods, the slope of the US yield curve does not have a significant impact on growth in the Euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:734-741
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.01.008
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    3. Oral Erdogan & Paul Bennett & Cenktan Ozyildirim, 2015. "Recession Prediction Using Yield Curve and Stock Market Liquidity Deviation Measures," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 407-422.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Smooth transition models; Nonlinear models; Economic growth; Business cycle; Stock market; Yield spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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