Forecasting national recessions using state level data
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, August.
- Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper 39168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
References listed on IDEAS
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
- West, K.D., 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Working papers 9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005.
"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, June.
- James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012.
"The Propagation of Regional Recessions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
- James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 16657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T., 2006.
"The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 335-339, March.
- Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Working Papers 2004-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008.
"A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue jun.
- Peter Temin, 1998.
"Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography,"
Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
- Peter Temin, 1998. "The Causes of American Business Cycles: An Essay in Economic Historiography," NBER Working Papers 6692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D., 2011.
"Calling recessions in real time,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
- James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Estrella, Arturo, 1998.
"A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
- Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hand D.J. & Vinciotti V., 2003. "Local Versus Global Models for Classification Problems: Fitting Models Where it Matters," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 57, pages 124-131, May.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
- Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
- Bokun, Kathryn O. & Jackson, Laura E. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2023.
"FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 279-297.
- Kathryn Bokun & Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications," Working Papers 2020-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Aug 2021.
- Ashton de Silva & Maria Yanotti & Sarah Sinclair & Sveta Angelopoulos, 2023. "Place‐Based Policies and Nowcasting," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 363-370, September.
- Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017.
"Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
- Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Model averaging in markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional data," Working Papers 1727, Banco de España.
- Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
- Wall, Howard, 2023.
"The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States,"
Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), January.
- Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cepni, Oguzhan & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2023.
"Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: Evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
- Oguzhan Cepni & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting National Recessions of the United States with State-Level Climate Risks: Evidence from Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 202252, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024.
"Forecasting UK inflation bottom up,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
- Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
- Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
- Fossati Sebastian, 2016.
"Dating US business cycles with macro factors,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 529-547, December.
- Fossati, Sebastian, 2011. "Dating U.S. Business Cycles with Macro Factors," Working Papers 2011-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2012.
- Ilias Filippou & Christian Garciga & James Mitchell & My T. Nguyen, 2024. "Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(08), pages 1-8, April.
- repec:fip:fedcwq:98080 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dey, Asim K. & Hoque, G.M. Toufiqul & Das, Kumer P. & Panovska, Irina, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
- Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2017. "Thousands of BEERs: Take your pick," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1078-1104, November.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics," Working Papers 16.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017.
"Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
- Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
- Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Model averaging in markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional data," Working Papers 1727, Banco de España.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020.
"Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model,"
OECD Statistics Working Papers
2020/01, OECD Publishing.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," PSE Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
- Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018.
"Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia,"
Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, November.
- Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, April.
- Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
- Hamilton, James D., 2011.
"Calling recessions in real time,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
- James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010.
"Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities,"
Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
- Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2018.
"Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 675-704, June.
- Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016.
"Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," Working Paper 2015/09, Norges Bank.
- Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016.
"New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle,"
International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
- Grigoraş, Veaceslav & Stanciu, Irina Eusignia, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-52.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013.
"Forecasting Binary Outcomes,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106,
Elsevier.
- Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2012. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Discussion Papers 12-09, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
- Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019.
"Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
- Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2016. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts - Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics -," Working Papers CIE 96, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Martínez-Martín, Jaime & Rusticelli, Elena, 2021.
"Keeping track of global trade in real time,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 224-236.
- Jaime Martinez-Martin & Elena Rusticelli, 2018. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1524, OECD Publishing.
- Jaime Martínez-Martín & Elena Rusticelli, 2020. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," Working Papers 2019, Banco de España.
- Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015.
"A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 3-9.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Post-Print hal-01146800, HAL.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers hal-04140957, HAL.
- Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
- Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012.
"Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation,"
SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
- Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gomez Loscos & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles Inside Cycles. Spanish Regional Aggregation," WIFO Working Papers 390, WIFO.
- Ana Gomez Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," ERSA conference papers ersa11p99, European Regional Science Association.
- Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, July.
- McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008.
"The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
- Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," NBER Working Papers 12400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McKay, Alisdair, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2015.
"Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1073-1089, November.
- Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Extracting non-linear signals from several economic indicators," Working Papers 1202, Banco de España.
- Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024.
"Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements,"
Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
- Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2020. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Working Papers 2020-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Aug 2021.
More about this item
Keywords
Recessions; Business cycles; Economic conditions;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BEC-2012-05-15 (Business Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-05-15 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-15 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.