IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aiz/louvar/2021010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Mastromarco, Camilla
  • Simar, Léopold

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium)

  • Zelenyuk, Valentin

Abstract

Despite the long and great history, developed institutions, and high level of physical and human capital, the Italian economy has been fairly stagnant during the last three decades. In this paper, we merge two streams of literature: nonparametric methods to estimate frontier efficiency of an economy, which allows us to develop a new measure of output gap, and nonparametric methods to estimate probability of an economic recession. To illustrate the new framework, we use quarterly data for Italy from 1995 to 2019 and find that our model, using either nonparametric or the linear probit model, is able to provide useful insights.

Suggested Citation

  • Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2021. "Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2021010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2021010
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02029-z
    Note: In: Empirical Economics, Vol. 60, p. 2701–2740 (2021)
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simar, Léopold & Vanhems, Anne, 2012. "Probabilistic characterization of directional distances and their robust versions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 342-354.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    4. Daouia, Abdelaati & Gijbels, Irène, 2011. "Robustness and inference in nonparametric partial frontier modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 147-165, April.
    5. Li, Degui & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2016. "Generalized nonparametric smoothing with mixed discrete and continuous data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 424-444.
    6. Bădin, Luiza & Daraio, Cinzia & Simar, Léopold, 2019. "A bootstrap approach for bandwidth selection in estimating conditional efficiency measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 784-797.
    7. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    8. Byeong U. Park & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2020. "Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 379-392, January.
    9. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simar, Léopold & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2014. "Frontier estimation in nonparametric location-scale models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 456-470.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    11. Seok-Oh Jeong & Byeong Park & Léopold Simar, 2010. "Nonparametric conditional efficiency measures: asymptotic properties," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 105-122, January.
    12. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Léopold, 2018. "Globalization and productivity: A robust nonparametric world frontier analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 134-149.
    13. Antonio Bassanetti & Massimiliano Iommi & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Francesco Zollino, 2004. "La crescita dell'economia italiana negli anni novanta tra ritardo tecnologico e rallentamento della produttivit�," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 539, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Francesco Aiello & Camilla Mastromarco & Angelo Zago, 2011. "Be productive or face decline. On the sources and determinants of output growth in Italian manufacturing firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 787-815, December.
    15. Henderson,Daniel J. & Parmeter,Christopher F., 2015. "Applied Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521279680, September.
    16. Christian J. Murray, 2003. "Cyclical Properties of Baxter-King Filtered Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 472-476, May.
    17. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    18. Wheelock, David C & Wilson, Paul W, 1995. "Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(4), pages 689-700, November.
    19. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    20. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    21. Malanima, Paolo, 2005. "Urbanisation and the Italian economy during the last millennium," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 97-122, April.
    22. Abdelaati Daouia & Irène Gijbels, 2011. "Robustness and inference in nonparametric partial-frontier modeling," Post-Print hal-00796744, HAL.
    23. Daouia, Abdelaati & Simar, Leopold, 2007. "Nonparametric efficiency analysis: A multivariate conditional quantile approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 375-400, October.
    24. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    25. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar, 2015. "Effect of FDI and Time on Catching Up: New Insights from a Conditional Nonparametric Frontier Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 826-847, August.
    26. Cazals, Catherine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simar, Leopold, 2002. "Nonparametric frontier estimation: a robust approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 1-25, January.
    27. Pellegrino, Bruno & Zingales, Luigi, 2017. "Diagnosing the Italian Disease," Working Papers 269, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    28. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    29. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    30. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    31. Subodh Kumar & R. Robert Russell, 2002. "Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital Deepening: Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 527-548, June.
    32. Roberts John M., 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-32, July.
    33. Cinzia Daraio & Léopold Simar, 2005. "Introducing Environmental Variables in Nonparametric Frontier Models: a Probabilistic Approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 93-121, September.
    34. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796744 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Subal C. Kumbhakarⓡ & Emir Malikovⓡ & Christopher F. Parmeterⓡ, 2021. "Applications of efficiency and productivity analysis: editors’ introduction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2657-2663, June.
    2. Filip Bašić & Tomislav Globan, 2023. "Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 2120040-212, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul, 2019. "Predicting Recessions: A New Measure of Output Gap as Predictor," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    2. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Léopold, 2018. "Globalization and productivity: A robust nonparametric world frontier analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 134-149.
    3. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    4. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2010. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 6(1-2), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar, 2021. "Latent heterogeneity to evaluate the effect of human capital on world technology frontier," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 71-89, April.
    6. Cinzia Daraio & Léopold Simar & Paul W. Wilson, 2020. "Fast and efficient computation of directional distance estimators," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 288(2), pages 805-835, May.
    7. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Léopold & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2022. "Estimating Nonparametric Conditional Frontiers and Efficiencies: A New Approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022035, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    8. Daraio, Cinzia & Simar, Léopold & Wilson, Paul W., 2021. "Quality as a latent heterogeneity factor in the efficiency of universities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    10. Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2019. "Technological change, technological catch-up and export orientation: evidence from Latin American Countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 85-100, December.
    11. Camilla Mastromarco & Lenka Stastna & Jana Votapkova, 2019. "Efficiency of hospitals in the Czech Republic: Conditional efficiency approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 73-89, February.
    12. Cordero, Jose Manuel & Polo, Cristina & Simancas, Rosa, 2022. "Assessing the efficiency of secondary schools: Evidence from OECD countries participating in PISA 2015," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Daraio, Cinzia & Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul, 2019. "Quality and its impact on efficiency," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    14. Frédérique Fève & Jean-Pierre Florens & Léopold Simar, 2023. "Proportional incremental cost probability functions and their frontiers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2721-2756, June.
    15. repec:wvu:wpaper:05-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    17. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Leopold, 2017. "Cross-Section Dependence and Latent Heterogeneity to Evaluate the Impact of Human Capital on Country Performance," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2017030, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    18. Léopold Simar & Paul W. Wilson, 2015. "Statistical Approaches for Non-parametric Frontier Models: A Guided Tour," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 83(1), pages 77-110, April.
    19. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU for Peru," Working Papers 2009-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Sushanta Mallick & Aarti Rughoo & Nickolaos G. Tzeremes & Wei Xu, 2020. "Technological Change and Catching-Up in the Indian Banking Sector: A Time-Dependent Nonparametric Frontier Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 217-237, June.
    21. T. Berger, 2008. "Estimating Europe’s Natural Rates from a forward-looking Phillips curve," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/498, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting ; Output gap ; Robust nonparametric frontier ; Generalized nonparametric quasi-likelihood method ; Italian recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2021010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nadja Peiffer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isuclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.