IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v30y2024i1p3-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysing the dynamic co-movement between tourism and expected economic growth considering extreme events

Author

Listed:
  • Jianxu Liu
  • Vicente Ramos
  • Bing Yang
  • Mengjiao Wang
  • Songsak Sriboonchitta

Abstract

In the post epidemic period, it is important to clarify the relationship between economic growth and tourism growth. The aim of this study is to characterize the co-movement between expected macroeconomic conditions and inbound tourism, focussing on the nonlinear relationship between these variables. Dynamic copula-based GJR-GARCH models are employed to measure nonlinear dependence. Total inbound tourism to Thailand and its disaggregation for its 10 main origin countries, are considered in the empirical study. The results show that there exists significant co-movement between expected economic growth and inbound tourism, and prove the importance of considering nonlinearities and extreme events. Also, copula nonlinear Granger causality is used to conclude that inbound tourism and expected economic growth have nonlinear bi-directional and unidirectional Granger causality relationship. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to restore tourism and boost economic growth in the post epidemic period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianxu Liu & Vicente Ramos & Bing Yang & Mengjiao Wang & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2024. "Analysing the dynamic co-movement between tourism and expected economic growth considering extreme events," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 3-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:30:y:2024:i:1:p:3-26
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166221129441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13548166221129441
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/13548166221129441?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez & Heiko Rachinger & María Santana-Gallego, 2021. "Testing the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis under long-range dependence," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 768-793, March.
    2. Camelia Surugiu & Marius Razvan Surugiu, 2013. "Is the Tourism Sector Supportive of Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence on Romanian Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 115-132, February.
    3. Akarapong Untong & Vicente Ramos & Mingsarn Kaosa-Ard & Javier Rey-Maquieira, 2014. "Thailand's Long-Run Tourism Demand Elasticities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(3), pages 595-610, June.
    4. Elie, Bouri & Naji, Jalkh & Dutta, Anupam & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2019. "Gold and crude oil as safe-haven assets for clean energy stock indices: Blended copulas approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 544-553.
    5. Kim, Jong-Min & Lee, Namgil & Hwang, Sun Young, 2020. "A Copula Nonlinear Granger Causality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 420-430.
    6. Po-Chin Wu & Hui-Yu Liu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Juei-Ming Hsiao, 2021. "Can financial technology development change the causality between tourism and economic growth?," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 1613-1630, June.
    7. Jiechen Tang & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Vicente Ramos & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 876-894, July.
    8. Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente & Oana Madalina Driha & Festus Victor Bekun & Festus Fatai Adedoyin, 2021. "The asymmetric impact of air transport on economic growth in Spain: fresh evidence from the tourism-led growth hypothesis," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 503-519, February.
    9. Dolnicar, Sara & Zare, Samira, 2020. "COVID19 and Airbnb – Disrupting the Disruptor," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Niccolò Comerio & Fernanda Strozzi, 2019. "Tourism and its economic impact: A literature review using bibliometric tools," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 109-131, February.
    11. Jianxu Liu & Mengjiao Wang & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Examining the Interdependence between the Exchange Rates of China and ASEAN Countries: A Canonical Vine Copula Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Claudiu Albulescu & Aviral Tiwari & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence between energy, agriculture and metal commodity markets," Papers 2003.04007, arXiv.org.
    13. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
    14. Xuan Ming Pan & Toyo Amegnonna Marcel Dossou, 2020. "The relationship between tourism and sustainable economic growth in the Republic of Benin," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 785-794, April.
    15. Chi, Junwook, 2020. "The impact of third-country exchange rate risk on international air travel flows: The case of Korean outbound tourism demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 66-78.
    16. Bartolomé, Ana & McAleer, Michael & Ramos, Vicente & Rey-Maquieira, Javier, 2009. "A risk map of international tourist regions in Spain," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2741-2758.
    17. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    18. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Stanislav Ivanov & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2017. "The nexus between tourism demand and output per capita with the relative importance of trade openness and financial development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 168-186, February.
    19. Tugcu, Can Tansel, 2014. "Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 207-212.
    20. Campos-Soria, Juan A. & Inchausti-Sintes, Federico & Eugenio-Martin, Juan L., 2015. "Understanding tourists' economizing strategies during the global economic crisis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 164-173.
    21. Bruno Eeckels & George Filis & Costas Leon, 2012. "Tourism Income and Economic Growth in Greece: Empirical Evidence from Their Cyclical Components," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 817-834, August.
    22. Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2018. "The Linkage Between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Nonlinear Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 53-65, January.
    23. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    24. Martin Henseler & Hélène Maisonnave & Asiya Maskaeva, 2021. "Economic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Tanzania," Working Papers hal-03501722, HAL.
    25. Josaphat Kweka & Oliver Morrissey & Adam Blake, 2003. "The economic potential of tourism in Tanzania," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 335-351.
    26. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 664-671.
    27. Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V. & Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco & Santana-Gallego, María, 2015. "Testing dependence between GDP and tourism's growth rates," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 268-282.
    28. Liu, Yaping & Li, Yinchang & Parkpian, Parnpree, 2018. "Inbound tourism in Thailand: Market form and scale differentiation in ASEAN source countries," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 22-36.
    29. Hattori, Takahiro, 2018. "Decomposing Japanese municipal bond spreads: Default and liquidity premiums in times of crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    30. Zhang, Hui & Zhang, Junyi & Kuwano, Masashi, 2012. "An integrated model of tourists’ time use and expenditure behaviour with self-selection based on a fully nested Archimedean copula function," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1562-1573.
    31. Yu-Shan Wang, 2012. "Research Note: Threshold Effects on Development of Tourism and Economic Growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 1135-1141, October.
    32. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Eeckels, Bruno & Filis, George, 2016. "Tourism and economic growth: Does democracy matter?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 258-264.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nishkar Kumar, Nikeel & Patel, Arvind, 2024. "A test of the tourism Dutch disease hypothesis in developing countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Muhammad Irfan & Munir Ahmad & Ousmane Traore, 2020. "Investigating the Influence of International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Linkage to Economic Growth: Evidence From ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    2. Nikeel Nishkar Kumar & Arvind Patel & Sean Kimpton & Antony Andrews, 2022. "Asymmetric reactions in the tourism‐led growth hypothesis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 661-677, December.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    4. Dogan, Ergun & Zhang, Xibin, 2023. "A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    6. Uktam Umurzakov & Shakhnoza Tosheva & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2023. "Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development: Evidence from Belt and Road Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 503-516, March.
    7. Nino Fonseca & Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero, 2020. "Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 137-154, February.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    9. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.
    10. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
    11. Nisar Ahmad & Angeliki N. Menegaki & Saeed Al‐Muharrami, 2020. "Systematic Literature Review Of Tourism Growth Nexus: An Overview Of The Literature And A Content Analysis Of 100 Most Influential Papers," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1068-1110, December.
    12. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & Heiko Rachinger & María Santana-Gallego, 2022. "Does tourism promote economic growth? A fractionally integrated heterogeneous panel data analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1355-1376, August.
    13. Paravee Maneejuk & Woraphon Yamaka & Wilawan Srichaikul, 2022. "Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries under the Presence of Structural Break: Panel Kink with GME Estimator," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Soklis, George & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 74-94.
    15. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Examining the Causal Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth: Spillover Index Approach for Selected CEE and SEE Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
    16. Naradda Gamage, Sisira Kumara & Kumudumali, S. H. T. & Otamurodov, Shavkat, 2020. "The Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Systematic Literature Review and Future Research Directions," MPRA Paper 104086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ioana Meșter & Ramona Simuț & Liana Meșter & Dorin Bâc, 2023. "An Investigation of Tourism, Economic Growth, CO 2 Emissions, Trade Openness and Energy Intensity Index Nexus: Evidence for the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-26, May.
    18. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2015. "How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 142-155.
    19. Sarantis Lolos & Panagiotis Palaios & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2023. "Tourism-led growth asymmetries in Greece: evidence from quantile regression analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(1), pages 125-148, January.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MPRA Paper 48715, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:30:y:2024:i:1:p:3-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.