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A Discrete-Choice Model of a College Football Recruit’s Program Selection Decision

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  • McDonald Paul Mirabile
  • Mark David Witte

Abstract

We formalize a discrete-choice model of program selection from the view of college football recruits. With a conditional logit model, we correctly predict the recruit’s preferred college for 65% of the 19,815 individuals, besting a purely random guess method (21%). We focus on the role football will play in postcollegiate careers of high-rated, mid-rated, and low-rated prospects in choosing a school. High-rated and mid-rated recruits value historical on-the-field success, historical head coach success, stadium capacity, media exposure, facilities, and coaching expenditures. Academic considerations and more recent on-the-field success, however, are more dominant factors for low-rated recruits.

Suggested Citation

  • McDonald Paul Mirabile & Mark David Witte, 2017. "A Discrete-Choice Model of a College Football Recruit’s Program Selection Decision," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(3), pages 211-238, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:211-238
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002514566278
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mirabile, McDonald & Witte, Mark, 2012. "Collegiate and professional careers of high school athletes," MPRA Paper 40643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. J. Michael Dumond & Allen K. Lynch & Jennifer Platania, 2008. "An Economic Model of the College Football Recruiting Process," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(1), pages 67-87, February.
    3. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
    4. Philip L. Hersch, 2012. "Does the NCAA Coaching Carousel Hamper the Professional Prospects of College Football Recruits?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(1), pages 20-33, February.
    5. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    6. Joshua D. Pitts & Jon Paul Rezek, 2012. "Athletic Scholarships in Intercollegiate Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(5), pages 515-535, October.
    7. George Langelett, 2003. "The Relationship between Recruiting and Team Performance in Division 1A College Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(3), pages 240-245, August.
    8. E. Woodrow Eckard, 2013. "Is the Bowl Championship Series a Cartel? Some Evidence," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 3-22, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. E. Frank Stephenson, 2022. "Bowl game participation and college football teams' subsequent on-field and recruiting success: a regression discontinuity approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1536-1546.
    2. Brent A. Evans & Christopher Clark & Joshua D. Pitts, 2024. "The Effects of Marijuana Legalization on NCAA Men's Basketball Recruiting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 200-216, February.

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