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Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market

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  • K.W. Chau
  • Bryan D. MacGregor
  • Gregory M. Schwann

Abstract

This paper examines price discovery for four sectors of the Hong Kong property market. The Hong Kong property market is one of the deepest and most liquid markets in the world. In addition, a substantial proportion of the real estate sector is securitized in the local share market. This makes Hong Kong one of the better places to examine price discovery. The results show that the returns to securitized real estate in Hong Kong are a mirror of broader international capital market movements. Once international capital market variables are included in the regressions, the returns to securitized real estate in Hong Kong convey little information about the appraisal-based returns to Hong Kong real estate. In addition, the results show that both capital market variables and local economic variables are significant for explaining the appraisal-based returns to Hong Kong property. The two sets of variables account for from 58% and 87% of the total variation in returns, with capital market factors contributing between 32% and 75% to the explanatory power.

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  • K.W. Chau & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2001. "Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 187-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:18:y:2001:i:3:p:187-216
    DOI: 10.1080/09599910110060064
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    3. S. Wong & K. Chau & C. Yiu, 2007. "Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 281-293, October.
    4. Graeme Newell & Chau Kwong Wing & Wong Siu Kei & Liow Kim Hiang, 2009. "The significance and performance of property securities markets in the Asian IFCs," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 125-148, October.
    5. David Geltner & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2003. "Appraisal Smoothing and Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1047-1064, May.
    6. K. Chau & S. Wong & C. Yiu & Maurice Tse & Frederik Pretorius, 2010. "Do Unexpected Land Auction Outcomes Bring New Information to the Real Estate Market?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 480-496, May.
    7. Ryan G. Chacon & Dan W. French & Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2021. "The Information Content of NAV Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 598-629, November.
    8. F. Y. Ouyang & B. Zheng & X. F. Jiang, 2014. "Spatial and temporal structures of four financial markets in Greater China," Papers 1402.1046, arXiv.org.
    9. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.
    10. William Mingyan Cheung & James Chicheong Lei & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "Does Property Transaction Matter in the Price Discovery of Real Estate Markets?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 27-49.
    11. Elias Oikarinen & Martin Hoesli & Camilo Serrano, 2013. "Do Public Real Estate Returns Really Lead Private Returns?," ERES eres2013_145, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    12. Ouyang, F.Y. & Zheng, B. & Jiang, X.F., 2014. "Spatial and temporal structures of four financial markets in Greater China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 236-244.
    13. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    14. Thi Kim Nguyen & Muhammad Najib Razali, 2020. "The dynamics of listed property companies in Indonesia," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 91-106, January.
    15. Patrick Wilson & Michael White & Neil Dunse & Chee Cheong & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2011. "Modelling Price Movements in Housing Micro Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(9), pages 1853-1874, July.
    16. Abdullah Yavas & Yildiray Yildirim, 2011. "Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets: A Dynamic Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-29, January.
    17. Graeme Newell, 2021. "Future research opportunities for Asian real estate," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 272-290, April.

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