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The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation

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  • Boulier, Bryan L.
  • Stekler, H. O.

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  • Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 79-83, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:66:y:2000:i:1:p:79-83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R. & Campos, Julia & Tran, Hong-Anh, 1990. "Pc-Give and David Hendry'S Econometric Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 10(1), April.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1998. "Indicator Properties of the Paper—Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experience," Scholarly Articles 4554251, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Indicator Properties Of The Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons From Recent Experience," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 34-44, February.
    6. Michael J. Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.
    7. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    3. Matthew C. Li, 2014. "The US zero-coupon yield spread as a predictor of excess daily stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 889-906, July.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. John G Powell & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2012. "Recession fears as self-fulfilling prophecies? Influence on stock returns and output," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 231-260, August.
    6. Bruinshoofd, W.A. & Candelon, B. & Raabe, K., 2005. "Banking sector strength and the transmission of currency crises," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Masashi Hasegawa & Yuichi Fukuta, 2011. "An empirical analysis of information in the yield spread on future recessions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1865-1881.
    8. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2007. "Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-705.
    9. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.

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