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Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia vs. the US

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  • Pierre Siklos

    (Wilfred Laurier University)

Abstract

This study considers whether the slope of the yield curve for New Zealand contains useful economic information. In order to provide some perspective, the present study also contrasts the New Zealnd experience with evidence based on US and Australian data. The princial findings of this study are as follows: - At short horizons, typically 2 years or less, the term structure for New Zealand behaves as in the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. - Nevertheless, there are departures from the expectations hypothesis, especially in the period when inflation objectives in New Zealand were on a declining path. Moreover, the policies of the US had a critically important impact around 1993-94. - Some evidence was found of an effect from the spread to future inflation but only when the headline CPI is used to measure inflation; the links disappear entirely once CPI ex credit costs are employed. The study argues that such results are consistent with a credible inflation targeting regime so that term structure serves possibly to signal changes in real interest rates rather than inflation in New Zealand. - There is good evidence that the spread helps predict future output in New Zealand, although the effect seems to dissipate after one year. once we distinguish between periods of positive versus negative growth rates in real GDP, the spread influences output up to two years into the future. Also, when output growth is measured asymmetrically, rising inflation expectations depress output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Siklos, 1999. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia vs. the US," Research Paper Series 25, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:25
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Basdevant & Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli, 2004. "Estimating a time varying neutral real interest rate for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Hadj Fraj, Salma & bouchoucha, Najeh & Maktouf, Samir, 2020. "Political stability and economic growth: the role of exchange rate regime," MPRA Paper 104586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Haug Alfred A & Siklos Pierre L, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, December.
    4. Alfred A. Haug & Pierre L. Siklos, 2002. "The Term Spread International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2002_08, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
    5. Manai Daboussi, Olfa, 2014. "Inflation Targeting As a Monetary Policy Rule: Experience and Prospects," MPRA Paper 59336, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2014.
    6. Olfa Manai Daboussi, 2016. "Enhanced Economic Stability and the Role of Inflation Targeting Policy: Empirical Study on Case of Developing Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(6), pages 352-362, June.
    7. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    8. Mohammed SAIFUL ISLAM & Mohammad Taslim UDDIN, 2011. "Inflation Targeting as the Monetary Policy Framework: Bangladesh Perspective," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 106-119, June.
    9. Abdelkader Aguir & Mounir Smida, 2014. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomics Performance," Post-Print hal-03791288, HAL.
    10. Hadj Fraj, Salma & Hamdaoui, Mekki & Maktouf, Samir, 2018. "Governance and economic growth: The role of the exchange rate regime," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 326-364.
    11. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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