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Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

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  • Hofmann, Boris

Abstract

This paper assesses based on euro area data whether the strong in-sample long-run link between money growth and inflation that has been highlighted by a number of recent empirical studies is exploitable to predict inflation out of sample. The results from standard bivariate forecasting models suggest that no monetary (nor any other) single indicator significantly outperforms a simple benchmark forecast. The further analysis shows that it would be premature however to discard based on such evidence the usefulness of monetary (and all other) indicators. First, it is shown that based on judgemental adjustments to monetary indicators correcting for the effects of identifiable, persistent velocity shifts, it appears possible to significantly improve predictive ability in real time. Second, I find that a factor forecasting model combining monetary and economic indicators, which can be regarded as a generalized quantity theory- or two-pillar Phillips Curve-forecasting model, delivers a fairly good and stable forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1165-1181, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:7:p:1165-1181
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    Cited by:

    1. Arratibel, Olga & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Kamps, Christophe, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank.
    2. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    3. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    4. Alexander Jung, 2018. "Have money and credit data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(1), pages 39-67, February.
    5. Jung, Alexander, 2017. "Forecasting broad money velocity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-432.
    6. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    7. Bulíř Aleš & Čihák Martin & Šmídkova Kateřina Š, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
    8. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    9. Alexey Ponomarenko & Elena Vasilieva & Franziska Schobert, 2014. "Feedback to the ECB’s Monetary Analysis: The Bank of Russia’s Experience with Some Key Tools," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 116-150, November.
    10. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    11. Cendejas, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan E. & Muñoz, Félix-Fernando, 2014. "Business cycle, interest rate and money in the euro area: A common factor model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 136-141.
    12. Ana Pereira & João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation with Monetary Aggregates," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    14. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.
    15. Luetkepohl Helmut & Xu Fang, 2011. "Forecasting Annual Inflation with Seasonal Monthly Data: Using Levels versus Logs of the Underlying Price Index," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, February.
    16. Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
    17. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Babu RAO G., 2020. "Impact of exchange rate regimes on inflation: An empirical analysis of BRICS countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 215-224, Summer.
    19. Gonçalves, Sílvia & McCracken, Michael W. & Perron, Benoit, 2017. "Tests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 231-252.
    20. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Roland Vaubel, 2010. "The Euro and the German Veto," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 82-90, January.
    22. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    23. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    24. repec:ptu:bdpart:a201011 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area Inflation Leading indicators Money;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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