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What was behind the M2 breakdown?

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  • Cara S. Lown
  • Stavros Peristiani
  • Kenneth J. Robinson

Abstract

A deterioration in the link between the M2 monetary aggregate and GDP, along with large errors in predicting M2 growth, led the Board of Governors to downgrade the M2 aggregate as a reliable indicator of monetary policy in 1993. In this paper, we argue that the financial condition of depository institutions was a major factor behind the unusual pattern of M2 growth in the early 1990s. By constructing alternative measures of M2 based on banks and thrifts capital positions, we show that the anomalous behavior of M2 in the early 1990s disappears. Specifically, after accounting for the effect of capital constrained institutions on M2 growth, we are able to explain the unusual behavior of M2 velocity during this time period, obtain superior M2 forecasting results, and produce a more stable relationship between M2 and the ultimate goals of policy. Our work suggests that M2 may contain useful information about economic growth during periods of time when there are no major disturbances to depository institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cara S. Lown & Stavros Peristiani & Kenneth J. Robinson, 1999. "What was behind the M2 breakdown?," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 99-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddfi:99-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Scott Benolkin & George A. Kahn, 2007. "The role of money in monetary policy: why do the Fed and ECB see it so differently?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q III), pages 5-36.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    4. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    5. Michael Dotsey & Carl D. Lantz & Lawrence Santucci, 2000. "Is money useful in the conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 23-48.
    6. Seth B. Carpenter & Joe Lange, 2003. "Money demand and equity markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 2001. "Is money still useful for policy in East Asia?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Jacky Mallett, 2012. "What Are The Limits On Commercial Bank Lending?," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-26.
    9. Ruth A. Judson & Bernd Schlusche & Vivian Wong, 2014. "Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Paresh Narayan & Seema Narayan & Vinod Mishra, 2009. "Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 685-696, June.
    11. Kaihua Deng & Dun Jia, 2018. "Backtesting Stress Tests: A Guide for M2 Forward Guidance," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 443-471, November.
    12. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank.
    13. Širůček, Martin, 2015. "Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu [Money supply and US stock market causality]," MPRA Paper 66357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2015.

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