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Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Altavilla

    (University of Naples Parthenope and CSEF)

  • Matteo Ciccarelli

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze monetary authorities’ reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide reliable estimates of the policy model coe¢cients associated with small central bank losses, in particular during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:274
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo M. Masolo & Alessia Paccagnini, 2019. "Identifying Noise Shocks: A VAR with Data Revisions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2145-2172, December.
    2. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," AMSE Working Papers 1717, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Real-time data; Great Moderation; Forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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