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Complex Dynamics and Financial Fragility in an Agent Based Model

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  • Mauro Gallegati
  • Gianfranco Giulioni

Abstract

We model an agent-based economy in which heterogeneous agents (firms and a bank) interact in the financial markets. The heterogeneity is due to the balance sheet conditions and to size. In our simulations, at the aggregate level, output displays changes in trend and volatility giving rise to complex dynamics. The average solvency and liquidity ratios peak during recessions as empirical analysis shows. At the firm level the model generates: (i) firm sizes left-skewed distributed, (ii) growth rates Laplace distributed. Furthermore, small idiosyncratic shocks can generate large aggregate fluctuations.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Gallegati & Gianfranco Giulioni, 2003. "Complex Dynamics and Financial Fragility in an Agent Based Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 86, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf3:86
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    Cited by:

    1. Aßmuth, Pascal, 2015. "Stock price related financial fragility and growth patterns," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 539, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    2. Orlando Gomes, 2017. "Heterogeneous wage setting and endogenous macro volatility," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(1), pages 27-57, April.
    3. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
    4. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle, 2015. "Deleveraging crises and deep recessions: a behavioural approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3771-3790, July.
    5. Ilker Arslan & Eugenio Caverzasi & Mauro Gallegati & Alper Duman, 2016. "Long Term Impacts of Bank Behavior on Financial Stability. an Agent Based Modeling Approach," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(1), pages 1-11.
    6. Bianchi, Carlo & Cirillo, Pasquale & Gallegati, Mauro & Vagliasindi, Pietro A., 2008. "Validation in agent-based models: An investigation on the CATS model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 947-964, September.
    7. Ikeda, Yuichi & Aoyama, Hideaki & Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Souma, Wataru & Kaizoji, Taisei, 2007. "Response of firm agent network to exogenous shock," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 138-148.
    8. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Di Guilmi, Corrado & Gallegati, Mauro & Giulioni, Gianfranco, 2007. "Financial Fragility, Industrial Dynamics, And Business Fluctuations In An Agent-Based Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 62-79, November.
    9. Carlo Bianchi & Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati & Pietro Vagliasindi, 2007. "Validating and Calibrating Agent-Based Models: A Case Study," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 245-264, October.
    10. Neveu, Andre R., 2013. "Fiscal policy and business cycle characteristics in a heterogeneous agent macro model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 224-240.
    11. Batuo, Michael & Mlambo, Kupukile & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "Linkages between financial development, financial instability, financial liberalisation and economic growth in Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 168-179.
    12. Batuo Enowbi, Michael & Kupukile, Mlambo, 2012. "Financial instability, financial openness and economic growth in african countries," MPRA Paper 43340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Edgardo Bucciarelli & Marcello Silvestri, 2013. "Hyman P. Minsky's unorthodox approach: recent advances in simulation techniques to develop his theoretical assumptions," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 299-324.
    14. Aßmuth, Pascal, 2017. "Stock price related financial fragility and growth patterns," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-108, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Barroso, Ricardo Vieira & Lima, Joaquim Ignacio Alves Vasconcellos & Lucchetti, Alexandre Henrique & Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira, 2016. "Interbank network and regulation policies: an analysis through agent-based simulations with adaptive learning," MPRA Paper 73308, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial fragility; complex dynamics; agent based models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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