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Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data

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  • Kim, Hwagyun
  • Park, Hail

Abstract

This paper empirically studies the role of macro-factors in explaining and predicting daily bond yields. In general, macro-finance models use low-frequency data to match with macroeconomic variables available only at low frequencies. To deal with this, we construct and estimate a tractable no-arbitrage affine model with both conventional latent factors and macro-factors by imposing cross-equation restrictions on the daily yields of bonds with different maturities, credit risks, and inflation indexation. The estimation results using both the US and the UK data show that the estimated macro-factors significantly predict actual inflation and the output gap. In addition, our daily macro-term structure model forecasts better than no-arbitrage models with only latent factors as well as other statistical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:22:y:2013:i:c:p:78-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2013.03.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rangan Gupta & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Xin Sheng & Sowmya Subramaniam, 2020. "The Role of Oil and Risk Shocks in the High-Frequency Movements of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the United States," Working Papers 202063, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Subramaniam, Sowmya, 2021. "Time-varying risk aversion and forecastability of the US term structure of interest rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kweku Kyei & Sowmya Subramaniam, 2020. "High-Frequency Movements of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the United States: The Role of Oil Market Uncertainty," Working Papers 202085, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Gupta, Rangan & Subramaniam, Sowmya & Bouri, Elie & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Infectious disease-related uncertainty and the safe-haven characteristic of US treasury securities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-298.
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Connolly, Robert & Dubofsky, David & Stivers, Chris, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the distant forward-rate slope," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 140-161.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure estimation; Latent macro-factors; Yield forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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