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Monetary Normalizations and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Fed Liftoff and Online Lending

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Listed:
  • Christoph Bertsch

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Isaiah Hull

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Xin Zhang

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

On December 16, 2015, the Federal Reserve initiated "liftoff," a critical step in the monetary normalization process. We use a unique panel data set of 640,000 loan-hour observations to measure the cross-sectional impact of liftoff on interest rates, demand, and supply in the peer-to-peer market for uncollateralized consumer credit. We find that the spread decreased by 17 percent, driven by an increase in supply. Our results are consistent with an investor-perceived reduction in default probabilities and suggest that liftoff provided a strong, positive signal about the future solvency of high credit risk borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Bertsch & Isaiah Hull & Xin Zhang, 2021. "Monetary Normalizations and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Fed Liftoff and Online Lending," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-47, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2021:q:5:a:7
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Qi, Yingjie & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Bank misconduct and online lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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