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Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models

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  • Parisi, Antonino
  • Parisi, Franco
  • Díaz, David

Abstract

This paper analyzes recursive and rolling neural network models to forecast one-step-ahead sign variations in gold price. Different combinations of techniques and sample sizes are studied for feed forward and ward neural networks. The results shows the rolling ward networks exceed the recursive ward networks and feed forward networks in forecasting gold price sign variation. The results support the use of neural networks with a dynamic framework to forecast the gold price sign variations, recalculating the weights of the network on a period-by-period basis, through a rolling process. Our results are validated using the block bootstrap methodology with an average sign prediction of 60.68% with a standard deviation of 2.82% for the rolling ward net.

Suggested Citation

  • Parisi, Antonino & Parisi, Franco & Díaz, David, 2008. "Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 477-487, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:5:p:477-487
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    14. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
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    16. Xian, Lu & He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Gold price analysis based on ensemble empirical model decomposition and independent component analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 454(C), pages 11-23.
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    18. Yang, Mo & Wang, Ruotong & Zeng, Zixun & Li, Peizhi, 2024. "Improved prediction of global gold prices: An innovative Hurst-reconfiguration-based machine learning approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Gutiérrez, Martha & Franco, Giovanni & Campuzano, Carlos, 2013. "Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 79, pages 113-142, September.
    20. Dichtl, Hubert, 2020. "Forecasting excess returns of the gold market: Can we learn from stock market predictions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
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    22. Sroka Łukasz, 2022. "Applying Block Bootstrap Methods in Silver Prices Forecasting," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 26(2), pages 15-29, June.

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