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Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

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  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Estrella, Arturo

Abstract

Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:2:p:260-264
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon H. Kwan & Louis Liu, 2022. "Financial Market Conditions during Monetary Tightening," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(03), pages 1-6, February.
    2. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 287-334.
    4. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    5. Seitz, Franz & Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
    6. Maximilian Renz & Olaf Stotz, 2021. "A macroeconomic hedge portfolio and the cross section of stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 73-94, January.
    7. Jens J. Krüger, 2014. "A multivariate evaluation of German output growth and inflation forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1410-1418.
    8. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
    9. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
    10. Kevin L Kliesen, 2023. "A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 423-450, August.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    13. Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
    14. Gunturu Phani Sai Vamsi Krishna & Pankaj Kumar Baag, 2021. "Financial Intermediaries: Its different role," Working papers 464, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    15. Forbes, Kristin & Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2024. "Rate Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 19272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Mr. Julio Escolano & Ms. Christina Kolerus & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2014. "Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2014/215, International Monetary Fund.
    17. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141803 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Boons, Martijn, 2016. "State variables, macroeconomic activity, and the cross section of individual stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 489-511.
    20. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    21. Byrne, David & Kelly, Robert, 2019. "Monetary policy expectations and risk-taking among U.S. banks," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    22. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2016. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(598), pages 2257-2291, December.
    23. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    24. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    25. Krüger, Jens J., 2024. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 149438, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

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