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The time-varying risk of Italian GDP

Author

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  • Busetti, Fabio
  • Caivano, Michele
  • Delle Monache, Davide
  • Pacella, Claudia

Abstract

The uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts is generally related to multiple sources of risks, of domestic and foreign origin. This paper studies the predictive distribution of the Italian GDP growth as a function of selected risk indicators, related to both financial and real economic developments. The conditional distribution of GDP growth is characterized by means of expectile regressions. Expectiles are closely related to the Expected Shortfall, which is here decomposed in terms of contributions of different risk factors. Our analysis confirms that financial conditions are relevant for the left tail of the predictive distribution and it highlights how indicators of global trade and uncertainty have explanatory power for both tails. Overall, our findings suggest that Italian GDP risks have been mostly driven by foreign developments around the Great Recession, by domestic financial conditions at the time of the Sovereign Debt Crisis and by economic policy uncertainty in more recent years.

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  • Busetti, Fabio & Caivano, Michele & Delle Monache, Davide & Pacella, Claudia, 2021. "The time-varying risk of Italian GDP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:101:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105522
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    Cited by:

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    2. Simon Lloyd & Ed Manuel & Konstantin Panchev, 2024. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 335-392, March.
    3. Gonzalez Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32148, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. J. David López-Salido & Francesca Loria, 2020. "Inflation at Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Gu, Xin & Cheng, Xiang & Zhu, Zixiang & Deng, Xiang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and China’s growth-at-risk," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 452-467.
    6. Anastasiya Ivanova & Alona Shmygel & Ihor Lubchuk, 2021. "The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) Framework: Implication For Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 10-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected shortfall; Financial conditions; Growth-at-Risk; Expectiles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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