IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v4y2004i1_2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Responses of Argentine Output to Shocks to Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates: A VAR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Hsing, Y.

Abstract

Applying the VAR model and based on the equilibrium condition for aggregate demand and aggregate supply, the author finds that real GDP in Argentina responds negatively to a shock to the real interest rate, the external debt ratio, or the real exchange rate and positively to a shock to real stock prices or the lagged real GDP during some of the quarters. The response of real GDP to government deficit spending is insignificant. The depreciation of the peso harms real GDP. In view of these results, to stimulate the economy, the Argentine government needs to lower the real interest rate and the external debt ratio, maintain a healthy and stable stock market, and pursue a stable exchange rate

Suggested Citation

  • Hsing, Y., 2004. "Responses of Argentine Output to Shocks to Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates: A VAR Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:4:y:2004:i:1_2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid412.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francois R. Velde & Marcelo Veracierto, 2000. "Dollarization in Argentina," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 24(Q I), pages 24-37.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    3. Guisan, M.Carmen & Martinez, C., 2003. "Education, Industrial Development and Foreign Trade in Argentina: Econometric Models and International Comparisons," Economic Development 67, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    4. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
    5. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-508, August.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    7. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Monetary policy and the theory of the risk-averse bank," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
    10. Yu Hsing, 2003. "Impact of external debt and other macroeconomic policies on output in Brazil: a var approach," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 97-108, December.
    11. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    13. Arturo Estrella, 2002. "Securitization and the efficacy of monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 243-255.
    14. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
    15. Pagan, Jose A. & Soydemir, Gokce A., 2001. "Response asymmetries in the Latin American equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 175-185.
    16. B. Gerard Dages & Linda S. Goldberg & Daniel Kinney, 2000. "Foreign and domestic bank participation in emerging markets: lessons from Mexico and Argentina," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 17-36.
    17. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 15-26.
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Morley, Samuel A, 1992. "On the Effect of Devaluation during Stabilization Programs in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 21-27, February.
    20. Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 1999. "Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: an empirical study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 197-202, August.
    21. Ms. Nada Choueiri & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Has the Nature of Crises Changed? A Quarter Century of Currency Crises in Argentina," IMF Working Papers 1999/152, International Monetary Fund.
    22. David J. Smyth & Yu Hsing, 1995. "In Search Of An Optimal Debt Ratio For Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(4), pages 51-59, October.
    23. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    24. Gaetano Antinolfi & Todd Keister, 2001. "Dollarization as a monetary arrangement for emerging market economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Nov.), pages 29-40.
    25. Russell W. Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2001. "Dollarization and the conquest of hyperinflation in divided societies," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Sum), pages 3-12.
    26. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1989. "A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 55-72, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Mexican output," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 85-94.
    2. Le Viet, H. & Pfau, W.D., 2009. "VAR Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Vietnam," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Response of Venezuelan output to monetary policy, deficit spending, and currency depreciation: a VAR model," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    2. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Latvian output and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 467-471.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Policies and Stock Market Performance on the Estonian Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(2), pages 109-116.
    4. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Mexican output," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 85-94.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:5:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yuhsing, 2006. "Macroeconomic policies and output fluctuations in slovakia: Application of the taylor rule," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 53(2), pages 249-259, June.
    7. Y Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Dollar Depreciation and Low Deposit Rates on the US Economy," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Application of the IS-MP-IA model to the German economy and policy implications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(5), pages 1-10.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Responses of output in Poland to shocks to the exchange rate, the stock price, and other macroeconomic variables: a VAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1017-1022.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1483 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:6:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAÞ, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Policies in Turkey: An Application for the Period After 2000," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-322, December.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    16. Yu Hsing, 2020. "Impacts of Real Depreciation and Appreciation on Aggregate Output in Taiwan," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 123-130, March.
    17. Shu Wu & Shigeru Iwata, 2004. "Estimating Monetary Policy Effects When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 478, Econometric Society.
    18. Hsing Yu & Hsieh Wen-jen, 2017. "Is Real Depreciation or Rising Government Debt Contractionary in India? A Simultaneous-Equation Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-6, June.
    19. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2018. "The changing transmission mechanism of US monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 959-987, May.
    20. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    21. Žukauskas, Vytautas & Hülsmann, Jörg Guido, 2019. "Financial asset valuations: The total demand approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 123-131.
    22. Kurasawa, Kazutaka & Marty, Alvin L., 2007. ""Optimal" inflation under dollarization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 251-264, March.
    23. Perera, Anil & Ralston, Deborah & Wickramanayake, J., 2014. "Impact of off-balance sheet banking on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from South Asia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 195-216.
    24. Turhan, Ibrahim M. & Gumus, Nihat, 2014. "On the relative importance of monetary transmission channels in Turkey," MPRA Paper 69827, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 May 2014.
    25. Muhammad Ali Rizwan & Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Hafiza Sadaf Zahra & Zartaj Jamil, 2020. "External Monetary Constraints Imposed by Developed Economies on Developing Economies: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 7-29, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:4:y:2004:i:1_2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.