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Do Eurozone yield spreads predict recessions?

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  • Schock, Matthias

Abstract

An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as part of a new risk-adjustment method that significantly enhances the predictive accuracy of the yield-spread approach. The results show that the accuracy of predictions of growth and recessions using the commonly employed yield spread remains high, provided that biases associated with Eurozone sovereign default risk are accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Schock, Matthias, 2014. "Do Eurozone yield spreads predict recessions?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-532, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-532
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    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-532.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    7. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    8. Dionisios Chionis & Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schock, Matthias, 2015. "Predicting Economic Activity via Eurozone Yield Spreads: Impact of Credit Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-542, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    yield curve; CDS spreads; economic activity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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