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Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

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  • Fabio Canova
  • Gianni de Nicolo

Abstract

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among asset returns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and international point of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly related to inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest rates predicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign term structures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflation and exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financial variables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implications of the results are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicolo, 1997. "Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective," Economics Working Papers 203, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:203
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transmission; business cycles; international stock returns; financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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