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Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Brugnolini
  • Giuseppe Ragusa

    (University of Pisa)

Abstract

We focus on forecasting the probability that euro-area inflation will fall into one of three intervals by employing an ordered multinomial model augmented with macroeconomic variables. We directly forecast the probability that the expected euro area HICP price index inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 and 24 months will be less than 1.5 percent, exceed 2 percent, or be between these two values. The model includes many predictors, and deal with dimensionality issues by an approach which mixes factor models with Bayesian shrinkage. Our results show that macroeconomic variables’ inclusion improves the model’s forecast quality, especially at the longer horizon considered. The Deflationary Pressure Index coincides with the probability that inflation is below 1.5 percent on average in the next 24 months, and it is useful as a policy monitoring tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:60:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-021-10170-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-021-10170-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ordered probit; Factor model; Bayesian shrinkage; ECB; HICP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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