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Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress

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  • Mr. Ivailo Arsov
  • Mr. Elie Canetti
  • Ms. Laura E. Kodres
  • Ms. Srobona Mitra

Abstract

The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative has called for the IMF to develop standard measures of tail risk, which we identify in this paper with systemic risk. To understand the conditions under which tail risk is present, it is first necessary to develop a measure of what constitutes a systemic stress, or tail, event. We develop such a measure and uses it to assess the performance of eleven near-term systemic risk indicators as ‘early’ warning of distress among top financial institutions in the United States and the euro area. Two indicators perform particularly well in both regions, and a couple of other simple indicators do well across a number of criteria. We also find that the sizes of institutions do not necessarily correspond with their contribution to spillover risk. Some practical guidance for policies is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ivailo Arsov & Mr. Elie Canetti & Ms. Laura E. Kodres & Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2013. "Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress," IMF Working Papers 2013/115, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Ivo Krznar & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2013. "Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy: A Cookbook," IMF Working Papers 2013/167, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Mr. Mohamed Norat & Antonio Pancorbo & Ms. Jodi G Scarlata & Eija Holttinen & Fabiana Melo & Jay Surti & Christopher Wilson & Rodolfo Wehrhahn & Mamoru Yanase, 2013. "Addressing Interconnectedness: Concepts and Prudential Tools," IMF Working Papers 2013/199, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Korobilis, D & Yilmaz, K, 2018. "Measuring Dynamic Connectedness with Large Bayesian VAR Models," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20937, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    5. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2021. "Leverage and systemic risk pro-cyclicality in the Chinese financial system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    7. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    8. Judith Eidenberger & Benjamin Neudorfer & Michael Sigmund & Ingrid Stein, 2013. "Quantifying Financial Stability in Austria, New Tools for Macroprudential Supervision," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 26, pages 62-81.
    9. Stijn Claessens, 2015. "An Overview of Macroprudential Policy Tools," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 397-422, December.
    10. Hallissey, Niamh, 2016. "Interconnectedness of the Irish banking sector with the global financial system," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 66-82, January.
    11. Mr. Nicolas R Blancher & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Akira Otani & Tiago Severo & Ms. Laura Valderrama, 2013. "Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit—A User Guide," IMF Working Papers 2013/168, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Phillip J. Monin, 2019. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, February.
    13. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The role of shadow banking in systemic risk in the European financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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