IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v49y2017i30p2910-2921.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M. Fullerton
  • Elías D. Saenz-Rojo
  • Adam G. Walke

Abstract

Prior research establishes that the spread between long- and short-term bond yields often provides valuable information for predicting business cycle downturns. This study examines the predictive capacity of the yield spread for the United States metropolitan economies situated along the border with Mexico. Because of the location of these urban economies and various economic ties linking them with twin cities across the border, the Mexico yield spread, and the real dollar/peso exchange rate are also employed as potential recession predictors. Results suggest that a flattening of the yield curve for either country tends to increase the probability of recessions in border economies. Furthermore, declines in the real value of the peso, which are typically associated with greater cross-border manufacturing activity, are found to reduce recession likelihoods in the metropolitan economies examined on the north side of the international boundary.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Fullerton & Elías D. Saenz-Rojo & Adam G. Walke, 2017. "Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2910-2921, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:30:p:2910-2921
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1251556
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251556
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2016.1251556?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanson, Gordon H., 2001. "U.S.-Mexico Integration and Regional Economies: Evidence from Border-City Pairs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 259-287, September.
    2. Thomas Fullerton & David Schauer, 2001. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(4), pages 471-478, November.
    3. André Mollick & Abigaíl Cortez-Rayas & Rosa Olivas-Moncisvais, 2006. "Local labor markets in U.S.–Mexican border cities and the impact of maquiladora production," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(1), pages 95-116, March.
    4. Hanson, Gordon H., 1996. "Economic integration, intraindustry trade, and frontier regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 941-949, April.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
    6. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    7. Keith Phillips & Jesus Cañas, 2008. "Regional business cycle integration along the US–Mexico border," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 153-168, March.
    8. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    9. Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
    10. Thomas M. Fullerton & Torres Ruiz & Luis BernardoAuthor-Workplace-Name: University of Texas at E1 Pasio, USA, 2004. "Maquiladora employment dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Hamid Baghestani & Ilker Kaya, 2016. "Do financial indicators have directional predictability for US home sales?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(15), pages 1349-1360, March.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Nakaota, Hiroshi, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Japan: the predictability of economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 311-326, August.
    14. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    15. Jesús Cañas & Thomas M. Fullerton & Wm. Doyle Smith, 2007. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 23-38, March.
    16. Pedro Niño & Roberto Coronado & Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2015. "Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1543-1559, December.
    17. Roberto Coronado & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Don P. Clark, 2004. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 38(4), pages 751-763, December.
    18. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam G. Walke & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2019. "Metropolitan Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 179-191, June.
    2. Thomas M. Fullerton & Adam G. Walke, 2019. "Cross-Border Shopping and Employment Patterns in the Southwestern United States," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pedro Niño & Roberto Coronado & Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2015. "Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1543-1559, December.
    2. Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2014. "Homicides, exchange rates, and northern border retail activity in Mexico," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-647, November.
    3. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. & Juan Carlos Vázquez Morales & Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda, 2011. "Dinamica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 23-40, May.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.
    5. Fullerton, T.M., 2007. "Empirical Evidence Regarding 9/11 Impacts on the Borderplex Economy," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 51-64.
    6. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    7. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
    8. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
    9. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    10. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    11. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    13. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    14. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    15. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    16. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    17. Hiroshi Nakaota & Yuichi Fukuta, 2013. "The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-09, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
    18. Andre Varella Mollick, 2008. "The Rise of the Skill Premium in Mexican Maquiladoras," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1382-1404.
    19. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
    20. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:30:p:2910-2921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.