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The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling

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  • A. Mansur
  • M. Masih
  • Vicky Ryan

Abstract

The term structure of interest rates in Australia, using data of different types as well as frequencies covering the period 1991(11) to 2000(9) is investigated using a relatively new modelling strategy previously untested on Australian interest rate data. Developed by Pesaran and Shin (2002), this strategy incorporates long-run structural relationships in an otherwise unrestricted vector autoregression model (VAR). The econometric tests indicate that in Australia, contrary to popular belief, long-term interest rates more often than not lead shorter-term interest rates, at least for the interest rates and time period under investigation. While these findings are not conclusive, if they are an accurate representation of interest rate behaviour, this does pose a major challenge for the monetary policy in Australia. The findings are consistent with the recent experience of the USA as well (Sarno and Thornton, 2003). The findings of the study based on recent rigorous time-series techniques tend to cast doubts on the efficiency and effectiveness of current monetary policy in Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Mansur & M. Masih & Vicky Ryan, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 557-573.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:8:p:557-573
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100500056742
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    Cited by:

    1. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India: Evidence from the Post-Liberalization Period (1996-2013). -La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse in India: una analisi empirica sul recente perio," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(2), pages 275-295.
    2. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Further Empirical Evidence for India (1996-2013) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse: ulteriore evidenza empirica per l’India (1996-2013)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 401-421.
    3. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.
    4. Sandy Suardi, 2010. "Nonstationarity, cointegration and structural breaks in the Australian term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2865-2879.
    5. Krishna Prasanna & Subramaniam Sowmya, 2017. "Yield curve in India and its interactions with the US bond market," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 353-375, April.

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