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Forecasting the size premium over different time horizons

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  • Zakamulin, Valeriy

Abstract

In this paper, we provide evidence that the small stock premium is predictable both in-sample and out-of-sample through the use of a set of lagged macroeconomic variables. We find that it is possible to forecast the size premium over time horizons that range from one month to one year. We demonstrate that the predictability of the size premium allows a portfolio manager to generate an economically and statistically significant active alpha.

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  • Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2013. "Forecasting the size premium over different time horizons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1072.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:3:p:1061-1072
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.11.006
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    4. Tienyu Hwang & Simon Gao & Heather Owen, 2014. "Markowitz efficiency and size effect: evidence from the UK stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 721-750, November.
    5. Lutzenberger, Fabian T., 2014. "The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 120-130.
    6. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y., 2019. "Can investor sentiment predict the size premium?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 10-26.
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    8. Fabian T. Lutzenberger, 2014. "The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 120-130, September.
    9. Hsieh, Hui-Ching & Nguyen, Van Quoc Thinh, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and illiquidity return premium," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Cristiane Gea & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Luciano Vereda & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2023. "Pricing uncertainty in the Brazilian stock market: do size and sustainability matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, January.
    11. Miralles-Quiros, Maria del Mar & Miralles-Quiros, Jose Luis & Gonçalves, Luis Miguel, 2017. "Análise do efeito tamanho na Bovespa," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 57(4), August.
    12. Iyad SNUNU, 2024. "Mood Swings And The Firm Size Premium," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 165-176, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Size effect; Size premium; Stock return predictability; Active alpha;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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