IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qld/uqcepa/120.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting Forecasting of Recessions via Dynamic Probit for Time Series by Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)

Author

Abstract

In this work we first replicate the results of fully parametric dynamic probit model for forecasting US recessions from Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008) (which is in the spirit of Estrella and Mishkin (1995, 1998) and Dueker (1997)) and then contrast them to results from non-parametric local-likelihood dynamic probit model for the same data.

Suggested Citation

  • Byeong U. Park & Leopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2017. "Revisiting Forecasting of Recessions via Dynamic Probit for Time Series by Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)," CEPA Working Papers Series WP032017, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqcepa:120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economics.uq.edu.au/files/5031/WP032017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Degui & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2016. "Generalized nonparametric smoothing with mixed discrete and continuous data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 424-444.
    2. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    3. Henderson,Daniel J. & Parmeter,Christopher F., 2015. "Applied Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107010253, January.
    4. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    5. Chi-Yang Chu & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2015. "Plug-in Bandwidth Selection for Kernel Density Estimation with Discrete Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Byeong U. Park & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2020. "Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 379-392, January.
    2. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul, 2019. "Predicting Recessions: A New Measure of Output Gap as Predictor," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    3. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2021. "Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2701-2740, June.
    4. Subal C. Kumbhakar & Christopher F. Parmeter & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2022. "Stochastic Frontier Analysis: Foundations and Advances I," Springer Books, in: Subhash C. Ray & Robert G. Chambers & Subal C. Kumbhakar (ed.), Handbook of Production Economics, chapter 8, pages 331-370, Springer.
    5. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    6. Chu, Chi-Yang & Henderson, Daniel J. & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2017. "On discrete Epanechnikov kernel functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 79-105.
    7. Dewitte, Ruben & Dumont, Michel & Merlevede, Bruno & Rayp, Glenn & Verschelde, Marijn, 2020. "Firm-Heterogeneous Biased Technological Change: A nonparametric approach under endogeneity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 1172-1182.
    8. David H. Bernstein & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2017. "Returns to Scale in Electricity Generation: Revisited and Replicated," Working Papers 2017-08, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    9. Almeida, Alexandre N. & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E., 2019. "Agricultural productivity, shadow wages and off-farm labor decisions in Nicaragua," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 99-110.
    10. Battisti, Michele & Gatto, Massimo Del & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2022. "Skill-biased technical change and labor market inefficiency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
    12. Alexey Mikhaylov, 2019. "Oil and Gas Budget Revenues in Russia after Crisis in 2015," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 375-380.
    13. Huang, Bai & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Ullah, Aman, 2020. "Combined estimation of semiparametric panel data models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 30-45.
    14. Christopher F. Parmeter & Hung-Jen Wang & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of the determinants of inefficiency," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 205-221, June.
    15. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6407 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bronwyn H. Hall & Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2003. "Universities as Research Partners," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 485-491, May.
    18. Hasan Engin Duran & Andrzej Cieślik, 2021. "The distribution of city sizes in Turkey: A failure of Zipf’s law due to concavity," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 1702-1719, October.
    19. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
    20. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    21. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 2001. "Obstacles to Optimal Policy: The Interplay of Politics and Economics in Shaping Bank Supervision and Regulation Reforms," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 233-272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uqcepa:120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SOE IT (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decuqau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.