IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ijmfpp/v7y2011i3p304-320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing probabilities of financial distress of banks in UAE

Author

Listed:
  • Ehab Zaki
  • Rahim Bah
  • Ananth Rao

Abstract

Purpose - Commercial and Islamic banks are important players in the UAE financial market. However, little is known about their financial distress because these financial institutions usually resolve financial distress within their own organisations, which means that outsiders cannot explicitly observe distress. The purpose of the research is therefore to identify the main drivers of financial institutions' financial distress. Design/methodology/approach - The paper estimates a probability distress prediction model using the BankScope Database and the annual reports of UAE financial institutions submitted to UAE Security Exchange Authority. The paper also analyses the impact of macroeconomic information for forecasting financial institutions' financial distress. Findings - The fundamentals of financial institutions in terms of cost income ratio, equity to total assets, total asset growth and ratio of loan loss reserve to gross loans (all these variables with a lag of one year) positively impacted the probability of financial distress in the next year. Recent findings for emerging economies have cast some doubt on the usefulness of macroeconomic information for financial institutions' risk assessment. Similar results are found for UAE financial institutions in predicting the probability of financial distress. Originality/value - This is the first study to provide empirical evidence on the drivers of financial distress of commercial and Islamic banks in UAE during 2000‐2008, and to examine the extent of the financial distress that can be can be attributed to internal bank‐specific fundamental factors and external factors in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehab Zaki & Rahim Bah & Ananth Rao, 2011. "Assessing probabilities of financial distress of banks in UAE," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 304-320, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijmfpp:v:7:y:2011:i:3:p:304-320
    DOI: 10.1108/17439131111144487
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/17439131111144487/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/17439131111144487/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/17439131111144487?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    4. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
    5. Daniel Porath, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of default for German savings banks and credit cooperatives," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 58(3), pages 214-233, July.
    6. Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    8. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-577, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Liu, Zhen Jia, 2015. "Estudo cross-country sobre os fatores determinantes da crise financeira bancária," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 55(5), September.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-062 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2015. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis Versus Wavelet Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 575-611, December.
    5. ElBannan, Mona A., 2021. "On the prediction of financial distress in emerging markets: What matters more? Empirical evidence from Arab spring countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    6. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:3:p:39-50 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Porath, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of default for German savings banks and credit cooperatives," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 58(3), pages 214-233, July.
    2. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
    3. Andrew Logan, 2001. "The United Kingdom's small banks' crisis of the early 1990s: what were the leading indicators of failure?," Bank of England working papers 139, Bank of England.
    4. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    5. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Swami, Onkar Shivraj & Vishnu Kumar, N. Arun & Baruah, Palash, 2012. "Determinants of the exit decision of foreign banks in India," MPRA Paper 38722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Modeling reasons for Russian bank license withdrawal: Unaccounted factors," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 30(2), pages 49-64.
    8. Kick, Thomas & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2011. "The importance of qualitative risk assessment in banking supervision before and during the crisis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Cleary, Sean & Hebb, Greg, 2016. "An efficient and functional model for predicting bank distress: In and out of sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 101-111.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    12. Sahut, Jean-Michel & Mili, Mehdi, 2011. "Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 138-146, January.
    13. Пересецкий А.А., 2007. "Методы Оценки Вероятности Дефолта Банков," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 43(3), июль.
    14. Pierluigi Bologna, 2015. "Structural Funding and Bank Failures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 81-113, February.
    15. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2013. "Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
    16. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    17. Jarko Fidrmuc & Philipp J. Süss, 2011. "The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 046-063, March.
    18. Le, Hong Hanh & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Predicting bank failure: An improvement by implementing a machine-learning approach to classical financial ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 16-25.
    19. Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
    20. G. Lanine & R. Vander Vennet, 2005. "Failure prediction in the Russian bank sector with logit and trait recognition models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/329, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    21. Thomas B. King & Daniel A. Nuxoll & Timothy J. Yeager, 2006. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 57-80.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijmfpp:v:7:y:2011:i:3:p:304-320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.