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News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models

Author

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  • Christopher Otrok

    (University of Virginia)

  • Andre Kurmann

    (Universite du Quebec a Montreal and CIRPEE)

Abstract

News shocks about future increases in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) lead to a large and persistent drop in inflation and the Federal Funds rate while driving up the slope of the term structure of interest rates (Kurmann and Otrok, 2010). In this paper, we first show that a monetary DSGE model with a standard parametrization along the lines of Smets and Wouters (2007) is unable to replicate these dynamics. We then formally estimate the model with a limited-information procedure that is designed to match as closely as possible the impulse responses of key macroeconomic aggregates, inflation and the term structure to TFP news shocks. When we restrict parameters to economically meaningful values, the model is unable to generate the large drop in inflation and the Federal Funds rate that causes the slope of the term structure to increase. This failure to quantitatively account for the impact of TFP news shocks represents a challenge for modern DSGE models because TFP news shocks explain a significant portion of the variation in inflation, the Federal Funds rate and the term structure of interest rate as well as medium-run fluctuations in future real activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:426
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    2. Soccorsi, Stefano, 2016. "Measuring nonfundamentalness for structural VARs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-101.
    3. Nadav Ben-Zeev & Evi Pappa & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2016. "Emerging Economies Business Cycles: The Role Of The Terms Of Trade Revisited," Working Papers 1610, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    4. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2017. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3243-3249, October.
    5. Massimo Franchi & Paolo Paruolo, 2012. "On ABCs (and Ds) of VAR representations of DSGE models," Working Paper series 56_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Aug 2012.
    6. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    7. Massimo Franchi, 2013. "Comment on: Ravenna, F., 2007. Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models. Journal of Monetary Economics 54, 2048-2064," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2013/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.

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