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Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach

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  • Joseph Atta-Mensah
  • Greg Tkacz

Abstract

This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian long bonds and the 90-day commercial paper rate is particularly useful in predicting Canadian recessions. This result is consistent with those of Estrella and Mishkin (1998).

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Atta-Mensah & Greg Tkacz, 1998. "Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach," Staff Working Papers 98-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:98-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Souki, Kaouthar, 2008. "Assessing the effects of U.S. shocks on the Canadian economy using alternative identification methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 193-213, August.
    3. Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 39-49.
    4. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Melvin Muzi Khomo & Meshach Jesse Aziakpono, 2007. "Forecasting Recession In South Africa: A Comparison Of The Yield Curve And Other Economic Indicators," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 194-212, June.
    6. Viktor Kotlán, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Future Inflation," Macroeconomics 0004014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    8. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank.
    9. Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2024. "Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach," Staff Working Papers 24-10, Bank of Canada.
    10. Sylvain Martel, 2005. "Y a-t-il eu surinvestissement au Canada durant la seconde moitié des années 1990?," Staff Working Papers 05-5, Bank of Canada.
    11. Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    12. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    13. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.
    14. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Switzer, Lorne N., 2010. "The behaviour of small cap vs. large cap stocks in recessions and recoveries: Empirical evidence for the United States and Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 332-346, December.
    16. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
    17. Patrick De lamirande & Jason Stevens, 2016. "Predicting events with an unidentified time horizon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 729-735.
    18. Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models," Kiel Working Papers 944, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    20. Milda Maria Burzala, 2012. "The Probability of Recession in Poland Based on the Hamilton Switching Model and the Logit Model," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 12, pages 73-88.
    21. Christis Hassapis, 2003. "Financial variables and real activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 421-442, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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