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Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach

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  • Joseph Atta-Mensah
  • Greg Tkacz

Abstract

This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian long bonds and the 90-day commercial paper rate is particularly useful in predicting Canadian recessions. This result is consistent with those of Estrella and Mishkin (1998).

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Atta-Mensah & Greg Tkacz, 1998. "Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach," Staff Working Papers 98-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:98-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    2. Souki, Kaouthar, 2008. "Assessing the effects of U.S. shocks on the Canadian economy using alternative identification methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 193-213, August.
    3. Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 39-49.
    4. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Melvin Muzi Khomo & Meshach Jesse Aziakpono, 2007. "Forecasting Recession In South Africa: A Comparison Of The Yield Curve And Other Economic Indicators," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 194-212, June.
    6. Viktor Kotlán, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Future Inflation," Macroeconomics 0004014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank.
    8. Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2024. "Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach," Staff Working Papers 24-10, Bank of Canada.
    9. Sylvain Martel, 2005. "Y a-t-il eu surinvestissement au Canada durant la seconde moitié des années 1990?," Staff Working Papers 05-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    11. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    12. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.
    13. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Switzer, Lorne N., 2010. "The behaviour of small cap vs. large cap stocks in recessions and recoveries: Empirical evidence for the United States and Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 332-346, December.
    15. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
    16. Patrick De lamirande & Jason Stevens, 2016. "Predicting events with an unidentified time horizon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 729-735.
    17. Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models," Kiel Working Papers 944, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    19. Milda Maria Burzala, 2012. "The Probability of Recession in Poland Based on the Hamilton Switching Model and the Logit Model," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 12, pages 73-88.
    20. Christis Hassapis, 2003. "Financial variables and real activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 421-442, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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