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The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium

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  • Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004-2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such relationship depends on the term premium. For this purpose, we estimate a threshold model in which the relationship between the yield spread and future economic activity, measured as either output growth or the probability of a contraction, depends on whether the term premium is above or below an estimated threshold. The main results indicate that the slope of the yield curve seems to anticipate the behavior of economic activity only when the term premium is above a threshold. Our results also suggest that the slope of the yield curve has predictive power over the probability of facing a contraction in the future only when the term premium is above a threshold. The estimated value for such threshold depends on the forecast horizon and the measure of economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2021-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Carabarín Aguirre Mauricio & Peláez Gómez Carlos D., 2021. "Financial Frictions in Mexico: Evidence from the Credit Spread and its Components," Working Papers 2021-20, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield Curve; Economic Activity; Term Premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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