IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/400.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining time to bank failure in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s

Author

Listed:
  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez
  • Nicholas M. Kiefer

Abstract

This paper identifies the main bank specific determinants of time to failure during the financial crisis in Colombia using duration analysis. Using partial likelihood estimation, it shows that the process of failure of financial institutions during that period was not a merely random process; instead, it can be explained by differences in financial health and prudence existing across institutions. Among the relevant indicators that explain bank failure, the capitalization ratio appears to be the most significant one. Increases in this ratio lead to a reduction in the hazard rate of failure at any given moment in time. Of special relevance, this ratio exhibits a non-linear component. Other important variables explaining bank failure dynamics are profitability of assets and the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans. Leverage appears to affect the hazard rate also, but with lower statistical significance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2006. "Explaining time to bank failure in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s," Borradores de Economia 400, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:400
    DOI: 10.32468/be.400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.400
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June.
    2. Mr. Robert Billings & Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1996. "Banking System Fragility: Likelihood Versus Timing of Failure: An Application to the Mexican Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 1996/142, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    4. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    5. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q I), pages 21-31.
    6. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    7. José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "Financial Reform, Crisis and Consolidation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 204, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José E. Gómez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2009. "Bank Failure: Evidence From The Colombian Financial Crisis," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(2), pages 15-31.
    2. Meral Varish Kiefer, 2014. "Bank failures and mergers in Turkey: 1992-2014," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 2(5), pages 31-49, October.
    3. Jos� Eduardo Gómez-González, 2012. "Failing and Merging as Competing Alternatives during Times of Financial Distress: Evidence from the Colombian Financial Crisis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 655-671, October.
    4. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
    5. Viral V Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2021. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4090-4131.
    6. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," Working Paper Series 176, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2023. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_446, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    9. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Marcelo Dabós & Walter Sosa Escudero, 2004. "Explaining and predicting bank failure using duration models: the case of Argentina after the Mexican crisis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 31-49, June.
    11. Zuzana Fungacova & Ms. Rima A Turk & Laurent Weill, 2015. "High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?," IMF Working Papers 2015/103, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & G. Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q III), pages 49-60.
    13. Adriana Soares Sales & Maria Eduarda Tannuri-Pianto, 2007. "Explaining Bank Failures in Brazil: Micro, Macro and Contagion Effects (1994-1998)," Working Papers Series 147, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fazelina Sahul Hamid, 2013. "The Effect of Reliance on International Funding on Banking Fragility: Evidence from East Asia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 29-60, February.
    16. repec:erf:erfstu:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Calice, Pietro, 2014. "Predicting bank insolvency in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6969, The World Bank.
    18. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Agrapetidou, Anna, 2018. "Forecasting bank failures and stress testing: A machine learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 440-455.
    19. Chen, Sichong, 2013. "How do leverage ratios affect bank share performance during financial crises: The Japanese experience of the late 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-18.
    20. José Eduardo Gómez González & Ines Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2010. "Un modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 124-147, June.
    21. Joseph Mason, 2001. "Do Lender of Last Resort Policies Matter? The Effects of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Assistance to Banks During the Great Depression," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 77-95, September.
    22. Kočenda, Evžen & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2020. "Bank survival in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 860-878.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; financial institutions; Bankruptcy; liquidation; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.