IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlcfu/v2014y2014i2id395p69-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Determinants of Firms' Default in the Czech Republic
[Makroekonomické determinanty úpadku firem v České republice]

Author

Listed:
  • Petr Jakubík
  • Tatiana Škerlíková

Abstract

This article deals with firms' defaults and empirically tests its key macroeconomic determinants. The conducted empirical analysis employs quarterly time series of the number of insolvency petitions filed in the period 1996-2009. The obtained results point out prediction ability of the growth rate of real consumption and investment, change in the growth rate of real foreign demand, interest rates, change in the growth rate of the nominal exchange rate and change in the growth rate of real wages on firms' defaults development. The study confirms a strong link between firms' bankruptcy rates and the macroeconomic development in the Czech economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubík & Tatiana Škerlíková, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Firms' Default in the Czech Republic [Makroekonomické determinanty úpadku firem v České republice]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 69-80.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2014:y:2014:i:2:id:395:p:69-80
    DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.395
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.395.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge

    File URL: http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.395.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.cfuc.395?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
    2. Deakin, Eb, 1972. "Discriminant Analysis Of Predictors Of Business Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 167-179.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    4. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
    5. Jia Liu, 2004. "Macroeconomic determinants of corporate failures: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 939-945.
    6. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    7. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    8. Viral V. Acharya & Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian, 2009. "Bankruptcy Codes and Innovation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 4949-4988, December.
    9. Unknown, 2005. "Index of volume 49," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1-5.
    10. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    11. Daniel McFadden, 1976. "A Comment on Discriminant Analysis "Versus" Logit Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 511-523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    13. anonymous, 2005. "Index to Volume 51," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1896-1902, December.
    14. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu, 2003. "Determinants of credit card delinquency and bankruptcy: Macroeconomic factors," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 75-84, March.
    15. John G. Cragg & Russell S. Uhler, 1970. "The Demand for Automobiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 386-406, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sanjay Sehgal & Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Ajay Jaisawal, 2021. "A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 435-461, December.
    2. Katarina Valaskova & Dominika Gajdosikova & Jaroslav Belas, 2023. "Bankruptcy prediction in the post-pandemic period: A case study of Visegrad Group countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 253-293, March.
    3. Michal Pavlicko & Marek Durica & Jaroslav Mazanec, 2021. "Ensemble Model of the Financial Distress Prediction in Visegrad Group Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-26, August.
    4. Khoja, Layla & Chipulu, Maxwell & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2019. "Analysis of financial distress cross countries: Using macroeconomic, industrial indicators and accounting data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Sylvia Jenčová & Róbert Štefko & Petra Vašaničová, 2020. "Scoring Model of the Financial Health of the Electrical Engineering Industry’s Non-Financial Corporations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Enrico Supino & Nicola Piras, 2022. "Le performance dei modelli di credit scoring in contesti di forte instabilit? macroeconomica: il ruolo delle Reti Neurali Artificiali," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 41-61.
    7. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    8. Lillian Cheung & Amnon Levy, 1998. "An integrative analysis of business bankruptcy in Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 149-167, June.
    9. Amin Jan & Maran Marimuthu & Muhammad Kashif Shad & Haseeb ur-Rehman & Muhammad Zahid & Ahmad Ali Jan, 2019. "Bankruptcy profile of the Islamic and conventional banks in Malaysia: a post-crisis period analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 67-87, February.
    10. García-Gallego, Ana & Mures-Quintana, María-Jesús, 2013. "La muestra de empresas en los modelos de predicción del fracaso: influencia en los resultados de clasificación || The Sample of Firms in Business Failure Prediction Models: Influence on Classification," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 15(1), pages 133-150, June.
    11. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
    12. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2019. "Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    13. du Jardin, Philippe, 2012. "The influence of variable selection methods on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models," MPRA Paper 44383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Nicoleta Barbuta-Misu, 2012. "Aggregated Index for Modelling the Influence of Financial Variables on Enterprise Performance," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 155-165, May.
    15. Kevin C.W. Chen & Chi†Wen Jevons Lee, 1993. "Financial Ratios and Corporate Endurance: A Case of the Oil and Gas Industry," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(2), pages 667-694, March.
    16. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
    17. Costeiu, Adrian & Neagu, Florian, 2013. "Bridging the banking sector with the real economy: a financial stability perspective," Working Paper Series 1592, European Central Bank.
    18. Teija Laitinen & Maria Kankaanpaa, 1999. "Comparative analysis of failure prediction methods: the Finnish case," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 67-92.
    19. Youssef Zizi & Amine Jamali-Alaoui & Badreddine El Goumi & Mohamed Oudgou & Abdeslam El Moudden, 2021. "An Optimal Model of Financial Distress Prediction: A Comparative Study between Neural Networks and Logistic Regression," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-24, November.
    20. T.G. Saji, 2018. "Financial Distress and Stock Market Failures: Lessons from Indian Realty Sector," Vision, , vol. 22(1), pages 50-60, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm's Default; Insolvency Petition; Insolvency; Over-indebtedness; Bankruptcy; Credit cost; GDP; Macroeconomic determinants; Firemní úpadek; Insolvenční návrh; Insolvence; Předlužení; Konkurz; Náklady věřitele; HDP; Makroekonomické determinanty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2014:y:2014:i:2:id:395:p:69-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.